Severe Weather

Heavy Rain to Disrupt Holiday Fireworks Monday AN UPDATE HAS BEEN POSTED>>>>>https://paweatheraction.com/rainfall-totals-update-for-independence-day Unfortunately, over the last 24 hours guidance has trended North with a low pressure system that will be impacting us Monday into Tuesday. Now, this puts most of the state under the gun for some heavy rainfall. This time yesterday, it looked as if only extreme Southern PA would have to deal with any type of rainfall Monday, but that has since changed. Timing: The rain will advance from Southwest to Northeast during the day Monday. It will begin in Southwest PA between 8 AM and Noon, and then arrive during the afternoon hours for…MORE...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UPGRADED TODAY: DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE As the latest short range guidance flows in, the STORM PREDICTION CENTER has UPGRADED much of the state in their respected categorical risks. Here’s their latest: In their discussion they state that damaging winds and hail will be the primary threat, with the potential of rotating storms. These storms that do rotate and become what we call a “super-cell” have the potential of producing a tornado or two. Area A – This region is now under a SLIGHT RISK for Severe Weather. This area has the potential of having a storm produce damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado. Area…MORE...
Supercells to Bring Hail, Damaging Winds & Possibly Brief Tornado Friday Although we don’t expect this to be a significant event, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded NE-PA to a slight risk. Their discussion mentions this, “SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL…WIND…AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.” The slight risk covers much of Eastern Upstate New York as well, and if there were to be a brief tornado it would likely be in New York, however with that said the Northern Poconos can not be ruled out of this risk. The rest of Eastern Pennsylvania is at a marginal risk for seeing these severe thunderstorms, including locations such as Philadelphia, Allentown, Reading, Lancaster, Harrisburg,…MORE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND It is hard to believe we are already at the end of June and forecasting the 4th of July Weekend. Time is truly flying by this year! Like the title states, there is the potential of some showers and storms for the 4th of July Weekend. They will come in 2 waves. Wave #1: Much like Tuesday’s Weather where Eastern PA took the brunt of the storms, the potential exists for a similar scenario late Friday Afternoon and into the nighttime hours. However, the severity of these storms will not be as powerful as Tuesday’s, nor will they be as…MORE...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UPGRADED FOR PARTS OF PA TOMORROW The latest from the Storm Prediction Center has now placed areas in Eastern PA under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather. This is an upgrade from their last update from earlier this morning. Timing: There will be TWO lines that will move through the area both impacting Eastern PA the greatest. The first line will deliver with it mainly heavy rain and few rumbles of thunder between 4 am and Noon. After that line passes through, a second line will develop, and depending on how much sunshine Eastern PA sees between the two different lines of storms, will determine if…MORE...
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT TODAY, DAMAGING WINDS + HAIL POSSIBLE TUESDAY A line of showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms will develop today and swing through the state of PA from West to East giving an area-wide threat of showers and storms. All activity should not contain severe weather, but heavy downpours and a rumble of thunder is possible. Latest short range guidance shows this line well. Valid for 1 PM this afternoon:  As the line sinks Southeast, the line begins to break up. So Western and Central parts of the state will definitely have the better chance for shower and thunderstorm activity. Tomorrow stands the better chance for the area to…MORE...
Severe Thunderstorm Threat Update Based off current radar observations and latest guidance, it looks like about half of PA will be able to escape the brunt of the Severe Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall during overnight hours and into Tomorrow Morning. Latest short range model, HRRR, shows this well valid for 7 am: It looks like if you live north of I-80 in PA your Thursday Morning will remain completely dry. Those areas south of the PA/MD border are in store for what looks to be a good amount of rainfall, perhaps over 2 and even 3 inches in spots. Just 36 hours ago, most…MORE...
Severe Thunderstorms to Bring Flooding Rain and Damaging Winds to Parts of Pennsylvania Tonight We continue to track a Mesoscale Convective System that is currently tracking over the Great Lakes region, bringing with it, damaging winds, large hail, and even tornadoes. This will track towards Pennsylvania Tonight into Thursday Early Morning. While it does so, it is expected to weaken up a bit. The latest words out of the Storm Prediction Center states, areas to the west of PA..mainly Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Southwest Michigan have the chance at seeing Tornadoes. Everyone else, including PA, has the potential of seeing strong winds in excess of 70mph (locally), large hail, and very heavy rainfall. The…MORE...
Flooding Rains with the Potential of Severe Weather Thursday We are tracking a Mesoscale Convective System, that will develop across the Great Lakes region Tomorrow, slides its way Eastward into the state of Pennsylvania by Thursday Morning. The MCS will reach Western PA by Thursday Morning…likely right around the morning rush hour, before pushing East from there and reaching Eastern PA by the Afternoon hours. Unlike typical thunderstorms, with a Mesoscale Convective System, on radar you will see a large area of heavy rain and thunderstorms. These will not be hit or miss type storms. More than likely your backyard will see some rainfall Thursday. Just how much rainfall…MORE...
Strong to Severe Storms to Pass Through the State Tonight into Tomorrow Morning After a mostly calm day, we turn our attention to a potent cold front that will be passing through the region later this evening and into Tomorrow morning. A line of strong to severe storms will develop along this front, first hitting the Northwest part of the state and will drift Southeastward from there. As the line does drift Southeastward, it will lose its intensity to some degree and is the reason why the Storm Prediction Center did not include the Central and Eastern portions of the State in the Slight Risk. The Storm Prediction Center states that the primary…MORE...
Rainfall Thursday & Friday, Watching For Coastal Re-Development Our next weather maker, that we turn our attention to, comes in the form of rainfall Thursday and again on Friday. A disturbance will develop over the Tennessee Valley and cross the Northern Mid-Atlantic States before heading out to sea later Thursday. There is still some model discrepancy of the exact track of this low pressure, however, most of us will see at least some rainfall Thursday. What is catching our attention at the moment, is how guidance is suggesting this low pressure to have some re-development as it heads towards the coast, and turn this disturbance into a weak…MORE...
Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Likely Saturday, Some Bringing Wind Gusts Over 60mph & Cloud-to-Ground Lightning         The Storm Prediction Center has labeled much of PA under a slight risk. Damaging winds, quarter size hail, and an isolated tornado will be possible. Being that temperatures will be over 90 degrees tomorrow in many regions, storms will likely get started in the mid-morning. However we don’t expect them to gain strength until the afternoon.         There is no specific timing because the storms will be pop-ups and scattered in nature throughout the day, so if you have any outdoor plans be sure to check the radar every so often and stay…MORE...
Severe Thunderstorms Bringing Wind Gusts Over 60mph Possible Saturday Afternoon & Evening         Nearly all of Pennsylvania has been placed under a slight risk by the Storm Prediction Center for severe thunderstorms Saturday. What comes with a slight risk? Scattered severe thunderstorms with wind damage reports, hail, and a few tornadoes. At this time, we are not expecting tornadic activity in Pennsylvania. With that said, one tornado in the entire state wouldn’t be too surprising. The main threat looks to be damaging winds. Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s Map.         Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be around the state Saturday Afternoon, but we are…MORE...
Storm Prediction Center Indicates Both Supercells and Bow Echos Possible Saturday         The Storm Prediction Center has been discussing this threat since Tuesday Morning, and now only being three days out it’s time for us to address it. As many of you know, we will now be posting the Storm Prediction Center’s Maps with their key. Along with that, we will be quoting several areas of their discussion.         With that said, we will also be including our thoughts about this event, so let’s get started. First of all, this will be a northwesterly flow type event. These events can be very interesting especially for…MORE...
Squall Line of Severe Thunderstorms Packing Damaging Winds & Hail Likely Sunday         A line of severe thunderstorms associated with an approaching cold front is expected Sunday Afternoon into the Evening across Central and Eastern PA. It will likely come in the form of a squall line or bow echo. One thing that they both have in common, damaging winds.         Damaging winds will be the main threat Sunday, likely between 58-70mph in storms that are severe. Although mid-levels of the atmosphere will be on the warm side, hail will also be possible in the strongest of storms.         The line will begin…MORE...

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