Fall Weather Forecast: Roller Coaster Temperatures, Early Start to Winter

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Believe it or not, the year 2017 is 70% over. The leaves are beginning to change, and by this time next month many areas of Pennsylvania will be peaking regarding fall foliage. The past two years featured hot summers and warm falls. So much so, most of us have not seen snow in December since 2014.

However this year, summer was not too hot. It was relatively rare to reach temperatures in the 90s across PA. The past two weeks have been on the cooler side, with highs often in the 50s to low 70s and lows in the mid 30s to low 50s depending on location. The next two weeks look to be just the opposite, as ridging builds on the Eastern seaboard. The Rocky Mountains in the Pacific Northwest are expecting as much as two feet of snow in the next few days, and more is likely to come.

We expect this “roller coaster” pattern to continue into fall. Long range models indicate October may be on the chilly side, as the pattern looks to flip again by the start of next month. Both the Euro Weeklies and the CFSv2 suggest troughing in the east will persist through much of the month. As a result, we expect slightly below normal temperatures. There will be times of intermittent warmth, but much of the month will be colder than normal. Here is our October Temperature Forecast.

The numbers on the graphic indicate our predicted mean temperatures anomalies. Now let’s talk about November. We anticipate the persistent troughing to subside somewhat. There will likely be periods of above average temperatures. With that said, there will also be times of below average temperatures that could lead to a widespread first snow in late November. In the end, we expect the mean to round out near normal. Here is our November Temperature Forecast.

December is the most important month for many of you, as winter sometimes begins during this month. This winter, it will be difficult to establish a pattern for over two or three weeks. This is what we expect in December. Anomalies to this year suggest below average temperatures will transpire. Long range modeling typically gets somewhat fuzzy this far out, but the Euro Monthlies and the CFSv2 print noticeable ridging in the west, which with this pattern may mean troughing in the east. Here is our December Temperature Forecast

We do expect to see snow in December this year. That’s all we will say regarding snow at this point. Be sure to have us liked on facebook to stay updated as winter approaches >>> Like Pennsylvania Weather Action on facebook.

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Hello, my name is Josh Adams. This year I am a junior in high school in South Central PA. I have had a passion for weather since I was five or six years old, watching the Weather Channel when the average kid my age was watching cartoons. At age 11, I discovered that there is a significant amount of weather info online from knowledgeable meteorologists to weather models and everything in between. I had the privilege to take part in a group that held informational weather discussions nearly everyday. I gained a significant amount of knowledge in several months back in 2012, constantly studying meteorology for hours each and just about every day. I created Northeast Weather Action in early 2013, just after the previous winter had ended. Things were pretty slow to start, however the winter of 2013-2014 greatly helped grow the page. Several of my forecasts verified nicely across the area. I met Chris during that winter in a facebook group, and we talked often about anticipated weather events. Just before the start of the 2014-2015 Winter, I added Chris to Northeast Weather Action (now Pennsylvania Weather Action), and once again we hit several key forecasts. Chris and I are looking forward to giving you the most up to date and reliable forecasts!

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