FEBRUARY 2016 WEATHER OUTLOOK: A WILD RIDE

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        January and December were two completely different months for us here in the Northeast weather-wise. December might as well have been named October, with record breaking warmth including days reaching 70 degrees. January however, was a much different story. We predicted below average temperatures and that’s exactly what occurred. Also, one of the worst blizzards in history pounded Southern and Eastern PA with as much as 38″ of snow. Some areas received more snow in the single snowstorm than their season average.

        So what does February have in its plans for our area? For the first five days, a storm will move through the Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing rain along with temperatures in the 40s in our region. By the time the first weekend of the month rolls around, we expect a strong cold front to come through behind the storm, bringing the coldest air of the season.

        This cold air won’t go anywhere as a significant stratospheric warming event occurs. Both the Arctic and Northern Atlantic Oscillations will also fall negative as the MJO stays in the circle of death or very weak phase 3/4. This all will lock in below average temperatures in our area for the rest of the month of February.

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        There is an overwhelming amount of agreement that this stratospheric warming event will take place. Furthermore, based on previous February strat. warming events, our region will be between -2 – 5°F below average, which is much colder than it sounds. But will we have moisture to go with this to make February not only a cold, but snow month as well?

        With El Nino continuing to pump in moisture through the Southern Stream also known as the “Pineapple Express,” we expect a fairly active month as far as storminess. The majority of storms here in Pennsylvania will be snow events. With well below average temperatures out toward the Midwest, that’s where high pressure will be located much of the time, meaning many storms will be coastal events similar to the storm we just saw, but most likely not as intense.

        Overall, we expect below average temperatures and above average snowfall in the month of February, which is exactly what our forecast stated back in October. Like our facebook page to be in the loop when winter storms threaten >>> Pennsylvania Weather Action Facebook Page! Stay safe everyone!

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Hello, my name is Josh Adams. This year I am a junior in high school in South Central PA. I have had a passion for weather since I was five or six years old, watching the Weather Channel when the average kid my age was watching cartoons. At age 11, I discovered that there is a significant amount of weather info online from knowledgeable meteorologists to weather models and everything in between. I had the privilege to take part in a group that held informational weather discussions nearly everyday. I gained a significant amount of knowledge in several months back in 2012, constantly studying meteorology for hours each and just about every day. I created Northeast Weather Action in early 2013, just after the previous winter had ended. Things were pretty slow to start, however the winter of 2013-2014 greatly helped grow the page. Several of my forecasts verified nicely across the area. I met Chris during that winter in a facebook group, and we talked often about anticipated weather events. Just before the start of the 2014-2015 Winter, I added Chris to Northeast Weather Action (now Pennsylvania Weather Action), and once again we hit several key forecasts. Chris and I are looking forward to giving you the most up to date and reliable forecasts!

2 Comments

  1. Robin says:

    I had no idea you were so young! You are doing a fantastic job and I love your story! Your passion for weather is obvious.

    During this last storm, I liked your page and was following your predictions.

    Hope the forecast for February is wrong….but you are probably right. Just hate the thought of more snow and all that cold.

    Keep up the great work!

  2. Esteban Browne says:

    I hope you are correct. When there is inclement weather I get to work from home without using any of my leave. My company would rather you be safe and productive and not out on the road where potential harm could happen. Plus I get to use my snowblower. There is nothing more beautiful than a nice heavy snowfall as the sun goes down.

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