December was a month that was flat-out amazing for some of us and a nightmare for others, depending on if you’re a winter-lover or not. However January has plans favoring the winter category. We expect slightly below normal temperatures (20s & 30s as highs, 10s and 20s as lows), and slightly above average snowfall overall. Here’s why.
For the entire month of December, the MJO was in phases that favor above average temperatures on the East Coast which is exactly what we saw. But for the first time in over two months, we are moving into MJO phases that support cold weather on the East Coast and of course Pennsylvania. Here is current model guidance that has been consistent for over two weeks and the typical pattern during phases we are moving towards.
Another reason we expect January to be cold is the dive of the Arctic Oscillation. Once again in December things couldn’t of gone much worse and the AO is just another example. We saw a month with nothing but a positive AO which typically brings above average temperatures. As we head into January the AO will nose-dive into a negative phase.
There are many other factors including stratospheric warming and different teleconnections which we will not get into. But to say the least January is looking extremely winter-like. Here are our forecast graphics for January.
Hello, my name is Josh Adams. This year I am a junior in high school in South Central PA. I have had a passion for weather since I was five or six years old, watching the Weather Channel when the average kid my age was watching cartoons. At age 11, I discovered that there is a significant amount of weather info online from knowledgeable meteorologists to weather models and everything in between. I had the privilege to take part in a group that held informational weather discussions nearly everyday.
I gained a significant amount of knowledge in several months back in 2012, constantly studying meteorology for hours each and just about every day. I created Northeast Weather Action in early 2013, just after the previous winter had ended. Things were pretty slow to start, however the winter of 2013-2014 greatly helped grow the page. Several of my forecasts verified nicely across the area. I met Chris during that winter in a facebook group, and we talked often about anticipated weather events. Just before the start of the 2014-2015 Winter, I added Chris to Northeast Weather Action (now Pennsylvania Weather Action), and once again we hit several key forecasts.
Chris and I are looking forward to giving you the most up to date and reliable forecasts!