One More Week of Warmth, Then First Flakes of the Season Possible

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Halloween is over, Thanksgiving is in less than three weeks, and stores think it’s December 24th. Most areas are well past their fall foliage peak as well. Yet temperatures are in the mid 50s to near 70?

So far, this Fall for the most part has been on the warmer side of things. Lately you may have heard about a pattern flip. While that is generally accurate, latest data suggests more of a gradual pattern change.

The next five days will just be a continuation of what we’ve been dealing with for the past several weeks. Highs in the 50s and 60s with Tuesday coming close to 70 degrees in parts of the state. However, this weekend (12th & 13th), a cold shot from Canada will deliver much colder air.

Highs could be in the mid 30s to mid 40s state-wide. In addition, lake effect snow showers could be relatively far reaching. There is a good chance many areas north of Allentown, Harrisburg, and Chambersburg will receive their first flakes of the season. Areas in Western PA could even see light snowfall accumulation Saturday. Below is the GFS for Saturday (Nov 12th).

gs2

By Monday (Nov 14th), the cold shot exits the region. What’s next, warmth as usual? Around this point, things get interesting. There is a good amount of model support that a system will move west-to-east above the Great Lakes Region. Behind that there is some uncertainty of what comes next.

g203

Above are two different models, the Euro EPS on the left and the GFS on the right. The low pressure just referred to can be seen in Northern Michigan on both models. Also on both models is a strong Southwestern US Ridge.

The real question is whether or not cold air flows into the Northern Plains and makes its way down into our area or if ridging wins out. There is strong disagreement within the models in regards to the answer of that question.

The lack of Central Canadian Snow Cover suggests ridging will once again win out. Another variable we look to is the EPO.g204

A Negative EPO often translates to below normal temperatures in the Central and Eastern US while a Positive EPO can cause above average temperatures in the stated regions. As you can see on the chart above, the EPO will fluctuate for the next ten days before potentially heading negative.

To wrap it all up, another warm week is ahead before a very chilly weekend arrives potentially bringing many first flakes to many areas. After that, either troughing will setup over the Eastern US or ridging will expand back into the area.

If the EPO does drop into a negative phase, there is an increased chance the Thanksgiving Time-frame could be chilly and possibly stormy. This is one reason why we are predicting a gradual pattern change as we head into the second half of the month.

Some interesting weather may be in store later this month, so be sure to like Pennsylvania Weather Action on Facebook. Don’t forget to share this update below with your family and friends. Stay safe!

Hello, my name is Josh Adams. This year I am a junior in high school in South Central PA. I have had a passion for weather since I was five or six years old, watching the Weather Channel when the average kid my age was watching cartoons. At age 11, I discovered that there is a significant amount of weather info online from knowledgeable meteorologists to weather models and everything in between. I had the privilege to take part in a group that held informational weather discussions nearly everyday. I gained a significant amount of knowledge in several months back in 2012, constantly studying meteorology for hours each and just about every day. I created Northeast Weather Action in early 2013, just after the previous winter had ended. Things were pretty slow to start, however the winter of 2013-2014 greatly helped grow the page. Several of my forecasts verified nicely across the area. I met Chris during that winter in a facebook group, and we talked often about anticipated weather events. Just before the start of the 2014-2015 Winter, I added Chris to Northeast Weather Action (now Pennsylvania Weather Action), and once again we hit several key forecasts. Chris and I are looking forward to giving you the most up to date and reliable forecasts!

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