Ever since Mid-January it seems like there has been a winter storm just about every week. With a warm weekend on the way, the potential for a possible Major Winter Storm is just the news many want to hear. Although specifics remain uncertain at this point and will remain uncertain until at least the weekend, we do know several things.
As usual models are doing what they do best, identifying threats meanwhile having disagreements among each other. When there is the threat for a legit major storm, usually at this point all models would indicate it. For example with the “Blizzard of 2016,” all models indicated the storm would have significant impacts on the area, with this storm all models indicate the area will be significantly impacted. NO, we are not saying this will be another “Blizzard of 2016.”
Here’s a quick rundown of the models. Starting with the Euro, there has been great consistency when it comes the question of storm or no storm in our region. But where will the low pressure be and the heaviest snow be? That’s where the model is still unsure, the morning run had everywhere from NC to Maine getting crushed by snow. This afternoon’s limited the heavy snowfall to NC as far north as the Mason-Dixon line. We expect this lack of consistency to continue until the weekend but we don’t see this afternoon’s run playing out as far as limiting the heaviest snow to south of the area.
The GFS and CMC models up to this point haven’t been real fond of the idea of a major winter storm for the majority of the state. However recent runs have jumped on the idea in a big way. We overall expect these indications to continue as we get closer and closer to this winter storm. Below is a comparison of both models.
One thing that definitely needs to be worked out over the next few days is where the low pressure will actually be. This will make a big difference especially for those of Southeast PA and in general within 100 miles of the I-95 Corridor. At this point the I-81 Corridor looks to be impacted significantly by this storm. Of course some things will change but we don’t expect another roller coaster ride like last storm, as the setup is much different.
By the weekend we should have a good idea especially regarding precipitation types with this storm. If the storm does produce, it will not be a very light and fluffy snow, but more of a wetter snow with the way things are looking. Timing will likely be Late Tuesday into nearly all of Wednesday. It is much too early for snow amounts but there is the potential for heavily disruptive snowfall especially in Central PA and parts of Eastern PA. That is not our forecast though, just yet.
We will have another update Friday Evening with more details on this Major Winter Storm and we will be doing all that on our website and our Facebook page as well, don’t forget to give us a “like”! >>> Pennsylvania Weather Action Facebook Page!
Hello, my name is Josh Adams. This year I am a junior in high school in South Central PA. I have had a passion for weather since I was five or six years old, watching the Weather Channel when the average kid my age was watching cartoons. At age 11, I discovered that there is a significant amount of weather info online from knowledgeable meteorologists to weather models and everything in between. I had the privilege to take part in a group that held informational weather discussions nearly everyday.
I gained a significant amount of knowledge in several months back in 2012, constantly studying meteorology for hours each and just about every day. I created Northeast Weather Action in early 2013, just after the previous winter had ended. Things were pretty slow to start, however the winter of 2013-2014 greatly helped grow the page. Several of my forecasts verified nicely across the area. I met Chris during that winter in a facebook group, and we talked often about anticipated weather events. Just before the start of the 2014-2015 Winter, I added Chris to Northeast Weather Action (now Pennsylvania Weather Action), and once again we hit several key forecasts.
Chris and I are looking forward to giving you the most up to date and reliable forecasts!