Our next weather maker, that we turn our attention to, comes in the form of rainfall Thursday and again on Friday. A disturbance will develop over the Tennessee Valley and cross the Northern Mid-Atlantic States before heading out to sea later Thursday. There is still some model discrepancy of the exact track of this low pressure, however, most of us will see at least some rainfall Thursday.
What is catching our attention at the moment, is how guidance is suggesting this low pressure to have some re-development as it heads towards the coast, and turn this disturbance into a weak coastal storm, that will possibly enhance the rainfall for the area on Friday. Where this area of “enhanced rainfall” sets up on Friday, is to be determined.
Lets take a look at the latest guidance.
The GFS, also known as the American Model, keeps much of the rain more south & west compared to the rest of the guidance. Some areas in far Northeastern PA escape the rainfall both Thursday & Friday per the latest GFS. Anywhere in the orange area, has the potential of seeing more than 2 inches of rainfall between Thursday & Friday.
The Canadian model is much more aggressive than the GFS, which is to be expected as it does have a wet bias to it. With that being said, this model brings the disturbance much further North, giving all of PA rain Thursday, with some coastal enhancement lingering into the day Friday. Again, all locations that fall in the orange area may see over 2 inches of rainfall between Thursday & Friday.
The European model is in between both the GFS and the Canadian. The Euro delivers rain to all of PA during the day Thursday, but instead of re-developing the coastal low further north like the Canadian, it develops it further South, so areas further to the South have the better chance of seeing the enhanced rainfall. Not to sound too redundant, but areas in the Orange may receive over 2 inches of rainfall between Thursday & Friday. And if the Euro is correct, there may be bulls-eyes of upwards of 4 inches in some locations.
Summary: Most locations will receive rainfall at some point on Thursday, depending on where the disturbance decides to re-develop along the coast will decipher which areas receive the most amount of rain. At this point, only minor flooding should be expected in the areas that do receive the heavier rains. This will be over a long period of time (24+ hours). We will know much more details come Tomorrow! Keep it here!