With storm after storm this season, it has been all about what the system could have produced instead of what it did produce, which has often been rain. Why is that? We have had little to no blocking, causing systems to cut to our west. However, we now have blocking in place, as well as ample cold air. All we need is a strong storm system, and that is exactly what ALL models indicate.
This is also not just something that popped up on the models. This storm has been consistent across the models the past several days with more and more coming on board. Now let’s get into the details.
A low pressure system will develop in the South Central Plains, and move east-northeast into the Upper Southeast while rapidly strengthening and grabbing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. It will then move into Tennessee before an energy transfer to Eastern North Carolina Friday Morning. By Friday Morning, there is a good chance snow will be falling in Southern PA, moving into the state from southwest to northeast.
After the storm transfers its energy to the coast, it will rapidly strengthen. The physical low pressure will move through Southeast Virginia Friday Night. By Friday Night once again there is a good chance moderate snow will be falling in the Southern two-thirds of the state with the heaviest snow falling across Southern and Eastern Pennsylvania.
There is the potential that this low pressure could somewhat stall off the coast Friday Night, extending the duration of this snowstorm in Eastern and Central PA. By Saturday Evening precipitation will likely be over across PA.
How about snowfall totals? At this point it’s a little too early to determine totals but we think areas in Southern and Eastern PA could potentially see snowfall totals over a foot if everything holds like it has been and continues to.
What can go wrong? There is not much that literally can go wrong with this storm. The greatest threat would be the storm moving off the Carolina’s and going out to sea. However, this is not likely and models have been trending away from this solution completely.
Below is the 12z Canadian Model indicating just how much snow is possible with this system. Also, wind gusts of 40-50MPH are likely in South Central and Southeastern PA which would produce steep drifts. Some may say this is “hype,” but it truly isn’t considering all factors are in perfect position and this solution has been on several models since Friday, with all models now indicating it.
Hello, my name is Josh Adams. This year I am a junior in high school in South Central PA. I have had a passion for weather since I was five or six years old, watching the Weather Channel when the average kid my age was watching cartoons. At age 11, I discovered that there is a significant amount of weather info online from knowledgeable meteorologists to weather models and everything in between. I had the privilege to take part in a group that held informational weather discussions nearly everyday.
I gained a significant amount of knowledge in several months back in 2012, constantly studying meteorology for hours each and just about every day. I created Northeast Weather Action in early 2013, just after the previous winter had ended. Things were pretty slow to start, however the winter of 2013-2014 greatly helped grow the page. Several of my forecasts verified nicely across the area. I met Chris during that winter in a facebook group, and we talked often about anticipated weather events. Just before the start of the 2014-2015 Winter, I added Chris to Northeast Weather Action (now Pennsylvania Weather Action), and once again we hit several key forecasts.
Chris and I are looking forward to giving you the most up to date and reliable forecasts!