While this will come as a shock to many, we have to remember even though this has been one of the warmest March’s in history to this point, it is still March and this is Pennsylvania. The colder air will arrive Saturday Night and will be supported by a strengthening low pressure system off the coast.
Let’s get right into the details! First of all, many are likely wondering where in the world this came from? The entire weather community has been watching this system for quite a while and recent models are trending the low pressure system west and closer to the coast. We discussed this yesterday that a 100-200 mile shift will make a major difference and that’s exactly what we got. Before buying this completely, we would like to see this trend continue and become firm. However, ALL models indicate this trend and this far out is the perfect time for an accurate trend to occur.
The storm system will develop in the Gulf Coast region Saturday before heading up the coast Saturday Night, reaching the Carolinas by Early Sunday. By Sunday Afternoon precipitation will begin to approach Southern PA. It is likely the majority of the region will be fairly above freezing Sunday Afternoon so there is a good possibility first precipitation starts as a rain/snow mix in Southern PA. By the evening if the storm is strong enough (this will be a very strong system pressure-wise), nearly all precipitation in Southern PA will be falling as snow. Furthermore, snow will begin to move into East-central PA.
Sunday Night is the time-frame with greatest potential to bring accumulating snow to Southern and Eastern Pennsylvania as temperatures will be the coldest and sun angle will not impact pavement. With that said, temperatures have been extremely mild and this storm will need to be significant for roads to be effected. Here is our map indicating areas most at risk for accumulating snow produced by this system.
AREA A – This area is at greatest risk for accumulating snowfall. It will likely receive impressive amounts of precipitation and also be cold enough to support frozen precipitation. Still too early for any accumulation forecasts.
AREA B – This area is at a slight to moderate risk for accumulating snowfall but needs the modeled storm track to change by 100-150 miles which is possible. Areas on the northern part of this region will likely be cold enough for all snow if precipitation does reach them, however areas on the southern edge will be too warm for accumulating snowfall.
AREA C – This area is at a slight risk for accumulating snow. There would need to be very major changes in the modeled low pressure location. For the northern part of this contour, this storm track needs to be up I-95 and in southern areas the storm-track needs to be off 250-300 miles off of the coastline.
Once again, it is too early for any predictions regarding possible snow accumulations. Also, we can promise you there will be some changes in the storm-track between now and Sunday which is why we made our map relatively broad.
Hello, my name is Josh Adams. This year I am a junior in high school in South Central PA. I have had a passion for weather since I was five or six years old, watching the Weather Channel when the average kid my age was watching cartoons. At age 11, I discovered that there is a significant amount of weather info online from knowledgeable meteorologists to weather models and everything in between. I had the privilege to take part in a group that held informational weather discussions nearly everyday.
I gained a significant amount of knowledge in several months back in 2012, constantly studying meteorology for hours each and just about every day. I created Northeast Weather Action in early 2013, just after the previous winter had ended. Things were pretty slow to start, however the winter of 2013-2014 greatly helped grow the page. Several of my forecasts verified nicely across the area. I met Chris during that winter in a facebook group, and we talked often about anticipated weather events. Just before the start of the 2014-2015 Winter, I added Chris to Northeast Weather Action (now Pennsylvania Weather Action), and once again we hit several key forecasts.
Chris and I are looking forward to giving you the most up to date and reliable forecasts!