January 2025 was harsh for almost everyone, whether you love or hate winter. Because while temperatures were 3 – 9 degrees below average across the state, snowfall was hardly average to even slightly below average. We saw the south get epic snowstorms on their standards, while we saw only 20-50% of average precipitation.
With January already being one of the drier months of the year, that meant on average we saw between 1 – 1.5″ of precipitation for the entire month. For some context, January of 2024 brought between 3 – 5″ of precipitation to Pennsylvania.
And while snow-lovers feel a bit ripped off, they should be grateful La Nina took longer to set in, which spared January from being much warmer. But while January is our coldest month of the year on average, February is typically the snowiest month of the year in places like Southeast and South Central PA.
Will an ongoing dry pattern that led to drought conditions in much of the state over the last 8 months persist, or are we in for a change? Let’s just say, La Nina is finally here.
Before we get into the February outlook, we have some current weather to discuss. Freezing rain is possible in the northeast quarter of the state Friday morning. Locations above 1500′ elevation are most likely to see a glaze of ice before temperatures rise above freezing late Friday morning.
FEBRUARY 2025 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
For many months, we have been hearing about La Nina returning after the Strong El Nino last winter. First it was supposed to be a hyper-active hurricane season with the onset of La Nina. That fell on its face. Then it was supposed to be a La Nina pattern this winter, which has yet to be the case.
Finally in December, La Nina finally came on the scene and has strengthened since. We often see a lag time of 6 – 8 weeks between that development and our pattern. It has arrived.
We are beginning to see the effects of a Moderate La Nina, with teleconnections around the globe going favorable for below average temperatures in Western North America. And in Southeast North America, the infamous southeast ridge is beginning to develop.
The southeast ridge will really take hold in February, with much of the Southern US likely to see well above average temperatures. And for us, slightly above average temperatures are expected. However compared to January, it will feel much warmer. Many days will have highs in the 40s, with a few days probably warmer than that.
We are not expecting a torch pattern, but this is certainly not a continuation of January. Highs will rarely be below freezing in much of the state. We anticipate more days with highs in the 40s in Harrisburg to Allentown, versus days with highs below 35.
FEBRUUARY 2025 SNOWFALL OUTLOOK
Note that all areas are likely to see above average rainfall in February, but this gives you a better idea of where more precipitation will fall as snow.
Area A: Above normal snowfall is expected, with wintry mix events also common.
Area B: Near-normal snowfall is anticipated in February. Expect more rain and wintry mix events than snow storms.
Area C: Below normal snowfall is expected in February. Most storms will be rain or wintry mix events, possibly beginning as snow.
This outlook is largely the product of a zonal pattern in February on the East Coast. We expect snowfall to be fairly latitude-based, with the rain/snow line being less influenced by elevations and cold air damming. With this setup, the mountains make less of a difference.
Northeast PA does best in terms of snowfall in La Nina patterns, while Southern PA usually sees below average snowfall. This is what many winter outlooks were originally based on, and La Nina will now take over our pattern.
As it stands, the first 7 days of February look warm and rainy. February 7 – 14th looks to have some potential for snow and/or wintry mix. Then another period of warmer and wetter conditions from the 15th to around the 21st, before possibly ending February with a normal pattern.
We hope this comes as welcome news to some of you, and we know others are still looking for more snow after past lackluster seasons. Don’t forget to share this outlook with any friends and family that are interested!
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