The likelihood of a messy winter storm impacting the state on Saturday continues to rise. A low pressure system will develop over the central Plains Friday and then begin to track northeastward. The low pressure center will track to the northwest of our region, over the Great Lakes region Saturday. Typically this would result in an all rain event. However, a strong high pressure in eastern Canada will cause cold air damming in and east of the Appalachians. This will result in cold air at all levels will hang on longer, meaning a wintry mix of precipitation during the day Saturday for us.

This will be another storm that most locations do at least start as a brief period of snow before changing to sleet, freezing rain and plain rain in some cases. We expect precipitation to reach far western Pennsylvania by 7:00 AM Saturday. The precipitation will likely be in the form of snow initially. Taking a look at the GFS model valid for 10:00 AM Saturday, most areas are receiving light snow, but the transition line is already pushing into western Pennsylvania. .The precipitation will start off light in the morning hours, but will quickly begin to fall at a moderate to heavy rate Saturday afternoon as the precipitation expands eastward. Below is a look at the GFS for 1:00 PM Saturday.




It is possible that many areas in central PA see a prolonged period of sleet Saturday instead of snow, likely reducing snowfall totals especially for locations in south-central Pennsylvania. Areas north of Interstate 80 in central and eastern Pennsylvania will likely see mostly snow out of this system. The GFS for 4:00 PM Saturday is shown below.

Significant travel impacts across much of the state will occur throughout the day Saturday, but we do anticipate the worst of the travel will be between 2:00 PM and 7:00 PM Saturday afternoon. Unlike previous events, most of the state will be in the 20s when wintry precipitation is falling. Please avoid traveling if you don’t need to. After 7:00 PM, precipitation will begin to wrap up and many areas will transition to freezing drizzle or plain rain by the time it is all set and done.




 

FIRST CALL SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY

Area A: Snow and sleet accumulations of 4 – 6″ expected. Travel will be hazardous Saturday Afternoon and evening due to snow covered and icy roads.

Area B: Snow and sleet accumulations of 2 – 4″ anticipated. Travel will be difficult Saturday Afternoon and evening due to slushy roads.

Area C: Snow and sleet accumulations <1 – 2″ expected. Slippery travel possible Saturday Afternoon.

Area D: Mainly rain anticipated.

We will have an updated forecast for this event on Thursday and Friday evening, so be sure to view those for the latest timing and amounts.

Don’t forget to share this messy forecast with your friends and family in the area.

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Last updated on January 15, 2020
Josh has been passionate about weather as long as his memory dates! From watching the Weather Channel at age 7, to making hand-drawn hurricane maps at age 11, starting his first weather site at 13, and founding PWA at 15 and forecasting for the state for the past 9 years, Josh's interest in weather has never dwindled! As difficult as it is, he greatly enjoys forecasting for Pennsylvania due to its countless microclimates. The state is an East Coast severe weather hotspot and nearly always home to the rain/snow line during winter storms!
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