December was a month that was flat-out amazing for some of us and a nightmare for others, depending on if you’re a winter-lover or not. However January has plans favoring the winter category. We expect slightly below normal temperatures (20s & 30s as highs, 10s and 20s as lows), and slightly above average snowfall overall. Here’s why.
For the entire month of December, the MJO was in phases that favor above average temperatures on the East Coast which is exactly what we saw. But for the first time in over two months, we are moving into MJO phases that support cold weather on the East Coast and of course Pennsylvania. Here is current model guidance that has been consistent for over two weeks and the typical pattern during phases we are moving towards.
Another reason we expect January to be cold is the dive of the Arctic Oscillation. Once again in December things couldn’t of gone much worse and the AO is just another example. We saw a month with nothing but a positive AO which typically brings above average temperatures. As we head into January the AO will nose-dive into a negative phase.
There are many other factors including stratospheric warming and different teleconnections which we will not get into. But to say the least January is looking extremely winter-like. Here are our forecast graphics for January.
Josh has been passionate about weather as long as his memory dates! From watching the Weather Channel at age 7, to making hand-drawn hurricane maps at age 11, starting his first weather site at 13, and founding PWA at 15 and forecasting for the state for the past 9 years, Josh's interest in weather has never dwindled! As difficult as it is, he greatly enjoys forecasting for Pennsylvania due to its countless microclimates. The state is an East Coast severe weather hotspot and nearly always home to the rain/snow line during winter storms!
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