JANUARY 2016 Weather Forecast

        December was a month that was flat-out amazing for some of us and a nightmare for others, depending on if you’re a winter-lover or not. However January has plans favoring the winter category. We expect slightly below normal temperatures (20s & 30s as highs, 10s and 20s as lows), and slightly above average snowfall overall. Here’s why.

        For the entire month of December, the MJO was in phases that favor above average temperatures on the East Coast which is exactly what we saw. But for the first time in over two months, we are moving into MJO phases that support cold weather on the East Coast and of course Pennsylvania. Here is current model guidance that has been consistent for over two weeks and the typical pattern during phases we are moving towards.

        Another reason we expect January to be cold is the dive of the Arctic Oscillation. Once again in December things couldn’t of gone much worse and the AO is just another example. We saw a month with nothing but a positive AO which typically brings above average temperatures. As we head into January the AO will nose-dive into a negative phase.

        There are many other factors including stratospheric warming and different teleconnections which we will not get into. But to say the least January is looking extremely winter-like. Here are our forecast graphics for January.

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