Large solar flares over the past few days have resulted in significant potentially earth-directed CMEs that may once again give many areas across the Northern US, including Pennsylvania, the opportunity to see aurora borealis. A G3 storm is expected, with somewhere between a maximum KP of 6 to 7 likely around 11 PM Thursday to 2 AM Friday.
A KP of 7 is ideal for seeing the northern lights in Pennsylvania, and it looks very close for tonight. The current forecast from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has a max KP of 6.67 tonight at around 11 PM, and then 7.0 Friday at around 5 PM, as can be seen here.
AURORA FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
Below is the latest thinking from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. Now understand, these events are not easy to predict and the southern view line is often off by hundreds of miles. With this forecast, we expect aurora to be visible through the camera lens everywhere in Pennsylvania.
A forecast from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks has aurora being visible overhead late this evening as far south as the Mason-Dixon line, meaning all of PA will have a shot at seeing the auroras. Even if not visible directly overhead, we should be able to see them on the northern horizon. Here is that forecast for Thursday evening (10/3) at 11 PM.
AURORA FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY EVENING
The northern lights outlook for Friday evening looks very similar, although the maximum KP of 7 is expected to peak around 5-8 PM Friday. This means immediately after the sun goes down is when we expect aurora to be most visible. Here is NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center’s forecast for Friday evening. It looks exactly alike to Thursday night.
The University of Alaska – Fairbanks forecast looks the same for Friday evening as well. For all the photographers out there, the best opportunity Friday looks to be a time-lapse of the sunset that transitions into the northern lights, with max KP expected directly after sunset. This map pertains to 5-8 PM Friday evening.
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT & FRIDAY EVENING
The forecast for these opportunities looks fairly good, with just some scattered high clouds likely both days. No rainfall or low clouds are expected.
Many people are interested in seeing the northern lights, so don’t forget to share this article with friends and family!
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