Potential Growing For Major Winter Storm Mid-Nextweek, Specifics Remain Uncertain -

Ever since Mid-January it seems like there has been a winter storm just about every week. With a warm weekend on the way, the potential for a possible Major Winter Storm is just the news many want to hear. Although specifics remain uncertain at this point and will remain uncertain until at least the weekend, we do know several things.

As usual models are doing what they do best, identifying threats meanwhile having disagreements among each other. When there is the threat for a legit major storm, usually at this point all models would indicate it. For example with the “Blizzard of 2016,” all models indicated the storm would have significant impacts on the area, with this storm all models indicate the area will be significantly impacted. NO, we are not saying this will be another “Blizzard of 2016.”

Here’s a quick rundown of the models. Starting with the Euro, there has been great consistency when it comes the question of storm or no storm in our region. But where will the low pressure be and the heaviest snow be? That’s where the model is still unsure, the morning run had everywhere from NC to Maine getting crushed by snow. This afternoon’s limited the heavy snowfall to NC as far north as the Mason-Dixon line. We expect this lack of consistency to continue until the weekend but we don’t see this afternoon’s run playing out as far as limiting the heaviest snow to south of the area.

The GFS and CMC models up to this point haven’t been real fond of the idea of a major winter storm for the majority of the state. However recent runs have jumped on the idea in a big way. We overall expect these indications to continue as we get closer and closer to this winter storm. Below is a comparison of both models.

One thing that definitely needs to be worked out over the next few days is where the low pressure will actually be. This will make a big difference especially for those of Southeast PA and in general within 100 miles of the I-95 Corridor. At this point the I-81 Corridor looks to be impacted significantly by this storm. Of course some things will change but we don’t expect another roller coaster ride like last storm, as the setup is much different.

By the weekend we should have a good idea especially regarding precipitation types with this storm. If the storm does produce, it will not be a very light and fluffy snow, but more of a wetter snow with the way things are looking. Timing will likely be Late Tuesday into nearly all of Wednesday. It is much too early for snow amounts but there is the potential for heavily disruptive snowfall especially in Central PA and parts of Eastern PA. That is not our forecast though, just yet.

We will have another update Friday Evening with more details on this Major Winter Storm and we will be doing all that on our website and our Facebook page as well, don’t forget to give us a “like”! >>> Pennsylvania Weather Action Facebook Page!

Lead Forecaster Josh Adams

Josh has been passionate about weather as long as his memory dates! From watching the Weather Channel at age 7, to making hand-drawn hurricane maps at age 11, starting his first weather site at 13, and founding PWA at 15 and forecasting for the state for the past 9 years, Josh's interest in weather has never dwindled! As difficult as it is, he greatly enjoys forecasting for Pennsylvania due to its countless microclimates. The state is an East Coast severe weather hotspot and nearly always home to the rain/snow line during winter storms!