Rainfall Totals Update For Independence Day

We have good news and some bad news. The good news is guidance has backed off a bit on rainfall totals and shifted everything a bit south over the last 24 hours. The bad news is, the chance for rain remains throughout the whole state, but not as heavy as originally thought especially for the Northern 2/3rd’s of the state.

The rainfall will arrive throughout the morning hours in Southern PA and into the early afternoon hours in Northern PA. It should remain light to moderate at times, and possibly taper or stop completely by the nighttime, before another, heavier batch of rain moves into the state early Tuesday Morning.

What does this mean for fireworks tonight? We think a good handful of firework shows will be able to go as planned due to the lull in the action expected Tonight. This would more so favor the Northern half of Pennsylvania. Southwest PA especially, may not be so lucky.

Here’s a look at the latest expected rainfall totals:

Area A – 1 inch to 2 inches of rain, with the greatest risk of exceeding 2 inches in multiple locations. Flooding may potentially be a concern in flood prone areas.

Area B – 1 inch to 2 inches of rain. The possibility exists for localized flooding.

Area C – 1/2 inch to 1 inch of rainfall. No flooding is to be expected.

Area D – Under 1/2″ of rainfall. No flooding is expected. This area has the best chance of fireworks going on as planned Tonight.

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Josh Adams is the founder and lead forecaster of Pennsylvania Weather Action, a regional forecasting site he launched in 2015. With over a decade of experience analyzing weather patterns across Pennsylvania, his forecasts have reached millions of readers throughout the state. Josh specializes in Pennsylvania’s complex microclimates and terrain-driven weather patterns, providing detailed coverage of severe thunderstorms, winter storms, and flooding events. His forecasting focuses on delivering precise, timely information to help Pennsylvanians stay informed and prepared during impactful weather. Last Updated: March 10, 2026