Second Call Forecast For Monday/Tuesday’s Major Winter Storm, Amounts & Timing Included

        Although guidance has shifted a bit warmer with its solutions, a significant Wintry Mix is in store for many especially Tomorrow. For those only interested in the map/timing forecast, scroll down below model discussion.

Latest GFS: 

        The GFS is the least aggressive with the front end snow idea, however it still does give most of us a few inches before changing over to sleet/freezing rain and then plain rain. Everything may turn over back to snow, especially for the Northwestern Part of the State.

Canadian: 

        The Canadian is much more aggressive than the GFS with the snowfall and ice potential. Notice the pinks, that would indicate a dangerous icing event taking shape over Central PA. Everything then changes over to rain by early Tuesday Morning.

European Model: 

        The Euro remains the farthest West with the storm track, however it still gives most of us a pretty good front end thump of snow before changing over to ice, then plain rain by early Tuesday Morning.

Latest NAM (short range model): 

        The NAM model is the most aggressive with the snowfall for just about everybody. Which is interesting because the NAM is in its “prime range.” Verbatim this would be several inches of snow to sleet/freezing rain and ending as rain for most of us.

KEY BELOW MAP

AREA  A – Up to 1″ of snow is likely as the front end of the storm moves in Monday Morning and Afternoon. This area will then change to all rain for the rest of the storm.

AREA  B  – 1-2″ of snow is likely Monday Morning and Early Afternoon before changing over to all rain by the evening. 

AREA  C – 2-3″ of snow is likely Monday Morning into the Early Afternoon before changing over to freezing rain which will cause about .1″ of ice accretion before changing over to all rain by Monday Evening.

AREA  D – 3-5″ of snow is likely Monday Morning into the Afternoon before changing over to freezing rain between 6-10 PM. Freezing rain will then continue through about 2-5 AM, when precipitation type will shift to plain rain. Up to .25″ of ice accretion is expected which could cause scattered power outages.

AREA  E – 5-8″ of snow is likely Monday Afternoon into Early Tuesday Morning before changing to plain rain by the AM Commute.

AREA  F – 8-12″ of snow is likely Monday Evening through Tuesday Afternoon which will cause travel disruptions. This area will stay all snow.

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Our Final Call will be released 6 AM Monday, stay tuned!