The best northern lights viewing opportunity since October 2024 is likely on the way Sunday night into Monday morning, with a G4 solar storm with a KP of 7.7 expected.
With Pennsylvania being relatively far south, it’s usually very difficult to see aurora with the naked eye. Ideally, we will need a KP of 8-9 to be able to see the northern lights through our eyes rather than the camera lens.
Below is the latest aurora forecast for Sunday night.
Aurora is very hard to predict and even a KP of 7.7 only comes around a few times a year during a solar maximum. A solar maximum occurs for 1-2 years during the height of sunspot activity in a solar cycle, which lasts around 11 years.
This chart below puts it into perspective. If you follow the pattern, the next solar maximum will not be until the mid 2030s. We are likely on our way down from this solar max, so this opportunity may be one of our last for a while.
But before we can think about where to travel to see the auroras, let’s check out the cloud cover as well as a growing occurrence – Canadian wildfire smoke.
Cloud Cover Forecast
Cloud cover looks minimal across Pennsylvania, with the greatest chance of partly cloudy skies in Northeast PA just after sunset Sunday. Our neighbors to the north won’t be so lucky.
Wildfire Smoke Forecast
Wildfire smoke won’t completely block out auroras, and it may actually be interesting to see how the smoke alters the colors. But for Pennsylvania, it won’t be a concern.
Moon Phase on Sunday Night
The moon phase Sunday night will be a waxing crescent with 35% illumination. This means there will not be much moon light, which is ideal for viewing the northern lights.
Aurora Borealis Timing in PA
The best time to view aurora is generally from 9 PM to 3 AM. A rapid increase from a KP of 2 to 7.7 is expected between Sunday afternoon and evening. A maximum KP of 7.7 is expected between 8-11 PM Sunday night, with a slight decrease to 7.0 from 11 PM – 2 AM.
These events have a history of being a bit delayed. We think the best aurora viewing will be between 9:30 PM Sunday – 2 AM Monday. A repeat is not currently predicted for Monday night.
SUNDAY NIGHT’S AURORA VIEWING FORECAST IN PENNSYLVANIA
This forecast is based on a maximum KP of 7.7 occurring during the expected time.
Area A: These northern, rural areas have the best chance of seeing aurora with the naked eye. A favorable moon phase and a maximum KP of 7.7 should promote a vibrant northern lights viewing experience. Cameras will undoubtedly capture bright aurora.
Area B: These suburban to rural areas with less light pollution and minimal cloud cover (except NEPA) have a fantastic chance of seeing the northern lights through a cameras lens. We will need of KP of 8-9 to be able to see aurora with the naked eye.
Area C: People in these urban areas who wish to see the northern lights will want to head to Area B. With high light pollution, it may still be possible for a long exposure photo to capture the aurora. But it will be much easier outside the cities.
This may be one of our final chances to see the northern lights for a decade, so be sure to share this forecast with friends and family!
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