First Call Forecast For Monday/Tuesday’s Major Winter Storm, Amounts & Timing Included

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2ND CALL POSTED >> https://paweatheraction.com/second-call-forecast-for-mondaytuesdays-major-winter-storm-amounts-timing-included

        A significant Winter Storm is targeting the area beginning Monday and lasting until at least the first half of Tuesday. For those only interested in the First Call Map/Key, that is at the bottom. Here is an in-depth discussion.

        Snow will overspread the area from the Southwest part of the state towards the Northeast part of the state beginning mid-morning Monday. The system should wrap up by Tuesday noon time.

        Here’s the latest model guidance breakdown.

GFS: gfers

        Like all guidance, GFS has all of us starting off as snow. However, it shows a changeover to rain for the Southeast part of the state and a mix of sleet and freezing rain for our Central areas. Farther to the Northwest is an all snow event.

Canadian: cmcers

        The Canadian model is much colder than the GFS. This shows a major snowstorm areas points North&West of a line from Harrisburg to the Poconos. This would also indicate significant freezing rain for Eastern PA.

European: euro wrong hopefully

        Although the European still starts everyone else as snow, it quickly turns most areas in Pennsylvania to Rain. This is the warmest of all models. Notice where the arrows are pointing in the above map. That is your rain/snow line. Notice how areas in far Western PA are the only ones cold enough to support snowfall. We do not believe this will be the case..let us explain.

Here’s a look at the upper air pattern up at 500mb via the European Model: kicks east doe        Notice the highlighted red box. This is a second piece of energy that will help “kick” this system coming Monday into Tuesday further East. It would be nearly physically impossible for the low pressure to cut far enough west that nearly the whole state rains. Now if this second piece of energy trends further west, then yes it is possible. However, that does NOT look to be the case.

 

KEY BELOW MAP

g1132

Area A – A few hours of light to moderate snowfall before quickly changing to rain Monday Evening. 1-2 inches of snowfall is expected.

Area B – Several hour period of snowfall before changing to freezing rain Late Monday Evening and then plain rain by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. 2-4 inches of snowfall is expected. Up to 0.10″ of ice accretion will follow the snowfall.

Area C – A longer duration period of snowfall Monday Evening into Early Tuesday Morning will lead to higher amounts. Then a several hour period of sleet and freezing rain is likely Mid Tuesday Morning before briefly changing to plain rain just before noon-time Tuesday. 4 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected. Ice accretion up to 0.20″. Scattered power outages and down trees are possible in this area.

Area D – This area will remain all frozen. Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected Monday Evening through around dawn Tuesday before changing to sleet and freezing rain just after dawn Tuesday. 6 to 8 inches of snowfall is expected, as well as ice accretion up to 0.20″. Again, scattered power outages and down trees are also possible in this region.

Area E – This area will remain all snow Monday Evening through around noon Tuesday. Guidance is all over place in terms of how much snowfall is expected in this particular area. However, taking a blend, expected 6 to 10 inches of snowfall to fall in this region.

Area F – All snow, too far west to get into the heavier bands. 4 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected.

If you have not already liked PA Weather Action on Facebook, like us to stayed updated on this storm and all to come >>>Pennsylvania Weather Action Facebook Page!

Our second call will be released 4 PM Sunday, stay tuned!

Happy to be apart of such a wonderful site with Josh. I am 19 years old and have been tracking the weather since the young age of 5! My goal is to give you all the most reliable and accurate information regarding the weather to my best ability!

1 Comment

  1. Tina says:

    I am from Texas. I have never lived in PA but my girlfriend does, so I was checking the weather and came upon this. In all my years to include my military years and the many states of where I’ve lived am to include two countries, have I see a more systematic and well thought out, color schemed forecast told and explained in many different ways so one can understand what is about to happen. I’m very impressed!

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