A system cutting to our west will bring the area rain on Wednesday along with a cold front, dropping temperatures. By Thursday winter-like temperatures will return and with temps falling into the teens and twenties Wednesday Night and Thursday Night, the stage will be set for some snowfall in much of the state.
At this point we are confident there will be at-least a few inches of snow throughout the state Thursday Night. There is widespread model support of this especially across the southern half of the state. The big question that remains is, will the low pressure that develops in North Carolina move up the coast or head out to sea? Also, where will it head off the coast?
The European model indicates a strong low pressure moving off the Carolina Coast, only delivering one or two inches of snow to the majority of the state because it does not bring the system up the coast. However, as of lately the European model has been relatively off of its game. Furthermore, its ensembles are shifting north steadily and could end up much farther north by the time Thursday rolls around.
The GFS model indicates a solution similar to the European, however the GFS predicts the low pressure will be farther up the coast when the system moves out, bringing a bigger hit with potentially moderate snowfall accumulation to Southern PA. With that said, we are not making a First Look Snowfall forecast until Tuesday Evening.
Finally, the Canadian model along with the NAVGEM model deliver much bigger of a hit to Central and Eastern Pennsylvania, bringing the coastal low pressure up the coast, spreading significant amounts of precipitation into areas with subfreezing temperatures.
At this point, we are not favoring one certain track, because we all know how models have been this winter. With that said, either way it’s likely an inch or two of snow will fall in nearly all of Pennsylvania Thursday Night caused by the original low pressure not fully weakening as it moves into the area.
As we move into March, sun angle will become an issue and snow will not stick to paved surfaces as easily. However, the snow will begin Thursday Night with temperatures in the 20s and we do expect it to stick to almost all untreated surfaces. Once again, the minimum with this event looks to be an inch of two of snowfall throughout the state and the maximum is a significant snowfall, only if the low pressure moves up the coast.
Hello, my name is Josh Adams. This year I am a junior in high school in South Central PA. I have had a passion for weather since I was five or six years old, watching the Weather Channel when the average kid my age was watching cartoons. At age 11, I discovered that there is a significant amount of weather info online from knowledgeable meteorologists to weather models and everything in between. I had the privilege to take part in a group that held informational weather discussions nearly everyday.
I gained a significant amount of knowledge in several months back in 2012, constantly studying meteorology for hours each and just about every day. I created Northeast Weather Action in early 2013, just after the previous winter had ended. Things were pretty slow to start, however the winter of 2013-2014 greatly helped grow the page. Several of my forecasts verified nicely across the area. I met Chris during that winter in a facebook group, and we talked often about anticipated weather events. Just before the start of the 2014-2015 Winter, I added Chris to Northeast Weather Action (now Pennsylvania Weather Action), and once again we hit several key forecasts.
Chris and I are looking forward to giving you the most up to date and reliable forecasts!