Winter Likely to Start Early With Pattern Flip Mid-Late November

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November and December of 2015 were anything but winter-like. Highs regularly in the 50s, even low 60s with constant morning fog typical of early fall was experienced. On Christmas, temperatures were in the 60s. To sum it all up, it was a winter-lover’s nightmare. This was thanks to the strongest El Nino in recorded history. So what will November and December bring this year?

Things will be much different to say the least. After a mild start to November, models are in agreement that persistent troughing on the Eastern Seaboard will produce below normal temperatures beginning November 12th-15th. From there, temperatures will only become colder and colder as Western US Ridging intensifies and Eastern US troughing deepens. Just how cold are we thinking?

Temperatures anywhere from 5-15 degrees below normal are expected, potentially reaching as far as 20 degrees below normal. Highs across Pennsylvania for the second half of November will likely be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. This will lead to the potential for winter weather events in the second half of the month, especially after the 20th. A White Thanksgiving is not out of the question but in no way are we specifically forecasting a winter storm on the holiday. What is more likely is the activation of Lake Effect Snow Season across Northwestern PA. Below is a graphic of the overall pattern anticipated.


Will this pattern continue beyond November? Not only is there model support it will, but also our top analogs support the continuation of this chilly pattern into December. This will as mentioned result in an early start to Winter 2016-2017.

Our Official 2016-2017 Winter Outlook will be released Tuesday (Nov. 1), as well as our Ahead of the Action Text Alert Service.

It’s time to get your winter weather gear ready! Stay tuned for updates not only regarding this pattern flip, but what it could lead to by liking Pennsylvania Weather Action on facebook! Don’t forget to share this forecast below on your selected social media platform below. Stay safe everyone!

Hello, my name is Josh Adams. This year I am a junior in high school in South Central PA. I have had a passion for weather since I was five or six years old, watching the Weather Channel when the average kid my age was watching cartoons. At age 11, I discovered that there is a significant amount of weather info online from knowledgeable meteorologists to weather models and everything in between. I had the privilege to take part in a group that held informational weather discussions nearly everyday. I gained a significant amount of knowledge in several months back in 2012, constantly studying meteorology for hours each and just about every day. I created Northeast Weather Action in early 2013, just after the previous winter had ended. Things were pretty slow to start, however the winter of 2013-2014 greatly helped grow the page. Several of my forecasts verified nicely across the area. I met Chris during that winter in a facebook group, and we talked often about anticipated weather events. Just before the start of the 2014-2015 Winter, I added Chris to Northeast Weather Action (now Pennsylvania Weather Action), and once again we hit several key forecasts. Chris and I are looking forward to giving you the most up to date and reliable forecasts!

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