November and December of 2015 were anything but winter-like. Highs regularly in the 50s, even low 60s with constant morning fog typical of early fall was experienced. On Christmas, temperatures were in the 60s. To sum it all up, it was a winter-lover’s nightmare. This was thanks to the strongest El Nino in recorded history. So what will November and December bring this year?
Things will be much different to say the least. After a mild start to November, models are in agreement that persistent troughing on the Eastern Seaboard will produce below normal temperatures beginning November 12th-15th. From there, temperatures will only become colder and colder as Western US Ridging intensifies and Eastern US troughing deepens. Just how cold are we thinking?
Temperatures anywhere from 5-15 degrees below normal are expected, potentially reaching as far as 20 degrees below normal. Highs across Pennsylvania for the second half of November will likely be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. This will lead to the potential for winter weather events in the second half of the month, especially after the 20th. A White Thanksgiving is not out of the question but in no way are we specifically forecasting a winter storm on the holiday. What is more likely is the activation of Lake Effect Snow Season across Northwestern PA. Below is a graphic of the overall pattern anticipated.
Will this pattern continue beyond November? Not only is there model support it will, but also our top analogs support the continuation of this chilly pattern into December. This will as mentioned result in an early start to Winter 2016-2017.
Our Official 2016-2017 Winter Outlook will be released Tuesday (Nov. 1), as well as our Ahead of the Action Text Alert Service.
It’s time to get your winter weather gear ready! Stay tuned for updates not only regarding this pattern flip, but what it could lead to by liking Pennsylvania Weather Action on facebook! Don’t forget to share this forecast below on your selected social media platform below. Stay safe everyone!