We continue to track a Mesoscale Convective System that is currently tracking over the Great Lakes region, bringing with it, damaging winds, large hail, and even tornadoes. This will track towards Pennsylvania Tonight into Thursday Early Morning. While it does so, it is expected to weaken up a bit.
The latest words out of the Storm Prediction Center states, areas to the west of PA..mainly Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Southwest Michigan have the chance at seeing Tornadoes.
Everyone else, including PA, has the potential of seeing strong winds in excess of 70mph (locally), large hail, and very heavy rainfall.
The map below is based off of the Storm Prediction Center’s forecast.
Area A – This region is placed under a MODERATE RISK for severe weather. This is the second highest category on their scale. This is the area that has the potential of seeing a tornado outbreak.
Area B – The SPC placed this area under an ENHANCED RISK for severe weather. Main threats will be for damaging winds and large hail. There is the low chance of an isolated Tornado. (This does include Southwest PA..Pittsburgh included. We still feel the tornado threat will remain to the west of even these areas in PA.)
Area C – This area is under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather. Much of Central and Western PA is included in this area. Main threats are for damaging winds and large hail. Little to no chance of tornado activity.
Area D – Placed under a MARGINAL RISK by the SPC. The threat for damaging wind and large hail is limited, however still possible. Heavy rains, localized flooding will be the bigger concern in these areas.
Area E – All thunderstorm activity should remain below severe criteria. Only heavy downpours should be expected.
Timing: Like the maps states, all activity will hold off until around Midnight for the Western part of PA and then drift Eastward from there throughout the morning.
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