Severe weather season is ramping up across the Midwest and soon the Northeast. Severe weather is likely ahead of a cold front pushing through as a low pressure to our north passes by. However, since the thunderstorm activity Thursday will be detached from the actual front, we don’t expect widespread severe weather.
Still, bow bow echoes are possible especially in Eastern PA the second half of Thursday. Models are also suggesting we may see a line form in Northwest PA and move southeast. As usual, guidance is drastically different just a day out.
HRRR MODEL FUTURE RADAR
Scattered thunderstorms will develop mid-Thursday afternoon. Most of these will be ordinary, non-severe storms. However the cells in Central PA will likely strengthen the most as they push east.
By 5:00 PM Thursday, you can see a broken line of storms forming near the I-81 corridor. Reality is often an hour faster than the models, so keep that in mind. Also, the greatest tornado threat, still relatively low, will exist within those cells that form in Southeast PA ahead of the line.
Jump to dinnertime and we see much of Eastern PA getting hit by strong to severe storms. Note that some guidance excludes NEPA from severe weather, which is why we removed them from Area A.
Scattered strong storms are also possible in Western PA around dinnertime Thursday.
And by sunset, storms will have cleared the Delaware River. Due to those storms being well ahead of the front itself and some daylight instability still leftover, we may see strong storms in the interior across the Appalachians.
FINAL CALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
Area A: Scattered severe thunderstorms expected, with a few bow echoes capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70mph. A few supercells that form ahead of the line may pose a low-end tornado threat.
Area B: Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated, with gusty winds of 30-60mph possible. Flash flooding may be a concern in Western PA especially.
Don’t forget to share this forecast with friends and family who may have outdoor plans on Thursday.
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