Although we are still three days away from Halloween, it is becoming increasingly likely that rain will impact our Halloween festivities Thursday evening. A large storm is developing over the Texas Panhandle and will take a track eventually over Ohio during the day Thursday. This will allow for a spike in temperatures, but also a steady to heavy rainfall during the day and evening Thursday.

The rain will arrive from west to east as early as 2:00 AM Thursday morning. The rain will overspread much of the state by the mid-morning hours Thursday. The rain will start off on the light side. Below is a look at 8:00 AM Thursday:

This particular run of our short range weather model is one of the weaker or less “enthused” scenarios for Thursday’s rainfall. Verbatim it does show a possible lull in the action early Thursday afternoon. The bulk of the rainfall is just begging to enter western parts of the state. Below is valid for 2:00 PM Thursday:

Again, this model is in disagreement with how steady and heavy the rain will fall Thursday evening. It has the rain weakening as it pushes eastward into the state Thursday evening. This would spare much of eastern Pennsylvania, allowing for Trick or Treat festivities to go on as planned. However, this is the least aggressive scenario. We do believe there will be at least some rain falling across most of the state Thursday evening. Nevertheless, here is our future radar valid for 8:00 PM Thursday evening:

Right now, plan on having a backup plan for Halloween festivities Thursday evening.

HALLOWEEN EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS:

Area A: 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall is possible, with isolated higher amounts. Some flooding is possible in heavier downpours.

Area B: 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is possible, with isolated higher amounts. Some flooding is possible in heavier downpours.

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Josh has been passionate about weather as long as his memory dates! From watching the Weather Channel at age 7, to making hand-drawn hurricane maps at age 11, starting his first weather site at 13, and founding PWA at 15 and forecasting for the state for the past 9 years, Josh's interest in weather has never dwindled! As difficult as it is, he greatly enjoys forecasting for Pennsylvania due to its countless microclimates. The state is an East Coast severe weather hotspot and nearly always home to the rain/snow line during winter storms!
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