We have been warning our followers for several days about this threat. Details are especially coming into focus now that we are just three days out. Here is what we know as of Thursday Evening.
A low pressure system moving across the Eastern Great Lakes will partner with a cold front, sweeping through the area Sunday Afternoon into the Evening. CAPE will top out near 2,000 J/kg, and the lifted index will be in the range of -5 to -6 across much of Central and Eastern PA. All mentioned factors support the development of widespread severe thunderstorms.
There will not be as much cloud cover as originally expected, opening the door for more instability in the atmosphere. Furthermore, storms will be moving from west to east ahead of the cold front. Timing will be important because the location of the front will determine the location of the storms. Where the storms are located in the late afternoon/early evening will be the area at the greatest risk for severe thunderstorms.
Here is our updated Severe Thunderstorm Threat Map (with key below it), along with a Main Risks Graphic, take a look!
Josh Adams is the founder and lead forecaster of Pennsylvania Weather Action, a regional forecasting site he launched in 2015. With over a decade of experience analyzing weather patterns across Pennsylvania, his forecasts have reached millions of readers throughout the state.
Josh specializes in Pennsylvania’s complex microclimates and terrain-driven weather patterns, providing detailed coverage of severe thunderstorms, winter storms, and flooding events. His forecasting focuses on delivering precise, timely information to help Pennsylvanians stay informed and prepared during impactful weather.
Last Updated: March 10, 2026
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