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Lead Forecaster Josh Adams
On February 24th, 2016, multiple tornadoes touched down from the New York Border to the Maryland Border. This year, parts of the state will face the threat of severe thunderstorms just one day later. While we don’t expect tornadoes this time around due to far different dynamics, strong to severe storms containing mainly damaging winds will be possible Saturday. A low pressure system moving through the Central Plains and Upper Midwest will cut to our west Thursday and Friday, pushing temperatures in Central and Southern PA over the 70 degree mark both days. By Saturday, warm air will still be…MORE...
About a week ago we made a post regarding a chilly and potentially snowy February in-store for the Keystone State. Now, being only seven days from the first day of February, our confidence has only grown that February will bring below average temperatures and above average snowfall to PA. Long range models continue to indicate persistent troughing from the Northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic for atleast the first half of February. Below is the GFS Ensemble Mean. To make things simple, blue means below normal temperatures, orange is above. We also mentioned the MJO, which can influence our pattern. It…MORE...
A strong cold front will move through the area Thursday, reactivating the lake effect snow machine. Snow will begin across Western PA Thursday Night, with the heaviest snow likely Friday. Pittsburgh will see about 2-4″ of snow, with its northern suburbs picking up 4-6″. The Laurel Highlands, especially around Somerset and Johnstown, will benefit from upslope activity, resulting in persistent snowfall. Around 6-8″ of snow is likely across these areas. Here is our complete snowfall forecast map. SNOWFALL EXPECTED THURSDAY – SATURDAY Area A – Snowfall accumulation of 8-12″ expected. Area B – Snowfall accumulation of 6-8″ expected. Area C…MORE...
To begin with, this article will be more technical than normal. This winter started off with temperatures near average in December. Though, you were probably wondering why it never snowed when it was cold and why it always rained when it was warm. We often turn to the NAO and AO when we think of winter. However, neither of those factors really played a big role in December. The teleconnection that dominated the pattern was the PNA. If you don’t know what the PNA is, it’s no big deal. All you need to know is when the PNA is negative,…MORE...
Today, a 127 year old record was broken across parts of the state. In addition, flash flood and severe thunderstorm warnings shaded the map in Western Pennsylvania north of Pittsburgh as a strong line of storms rolled through. This is what mid-January has come to here in PA. Will it last? Of course not! Just 36 hours from now snow will be falling in some of the same regions that reached the mid 60s today. The same system that will be giving us snow and ice Saturday will be crippling some areas of the Central Plains with up to an…MORE...
Lake effect snow is likely Friday across Western PA. Area A – Snow accumulation of 8-12″+. Area B – Snow accumulation of 4-8″. Area C – Snow accumulation of 2-4″. Area D – Snow accumulation of 1-2″. Area E – Snow accumulation of less than 1″. Like us on facebook at Pennsylvania Weather Action and remember to share the forecast with your family and friends below!
We are watching two areas of low pressure systems this week that will lead to our potential snow event on Thursday. One will be dropping out of Canada in the form of a weak clipper system, while another area of low pressure develops in the south and eventually heads northeast. Where these two systems merge off the coast on Thursday, is what makes the major differences between model guidance and also our snowfall amounts. The quicker and further south these two systems merge, the more likely it is our state gets into a more note-worthy snowfall, especially Northeastern PA. The…MORE...
There is now the threat of a widespread ice storm in Central and Western Pennsylvania. While upper levels warm Saturday Morning, moderate precipitation will continue in many areas with surface temperatures well below freezing. Deep valleys will hang on to cold air the longest Saturday, with some areas not reaching the freezing mark until mid-afternoon. Below is the RGEM for 4 AM Saturday Morning. As you can see, while the overwhelming majority of the state is experiencing snow at this point, freezing rain is beginning over Southwestern PA. Here is the same model for 7 AM Saturday. By 7 AM,…MORE...
We have good news and we have bad news. The good news is, guidance has dropped snow totals somewhat for nearly the entire state. The bad news is, it now looks like there will be more ice involved especially for Central PA. Timing: Snow will overspread the state after 8 PM Friday Evening for Western areas, and then after 11 PM for Central and Eastern areas. As we head into the overnight hours early Saturday Morning, likely after 4 AM for Southwest PA and after 8 AM for areas further to the North and East, a changeover to sleet and…MORE...
Snow is coming down across nearly all of Northern Pennsylvania as well as parts of Eastern PA. By late evening precipitation will move back into Southern Pennsylvania starting as snow for many in the Laurel Highlands to Susquehanna Valley. By midnight snow will begin to move into Eastern PA, while precipitation type in Southcentral PA switches to freezing rain. In addition, Northern Pennsylvania will be seeing light snow. By 3-5 AM, temperatures will begin to warm above freezing in Southern PA and Eastern PA. Light to moderate snow will continue in Northern PA before ending as a short period of…MORE...
A Winter Storm will move through the area Sunday into Monday. Here’s what you can expect for timing, accumulations, and road impacts. MAP FORECAST FOR APPROACHING WINTER STORM Area A – Snow will move in from west to east Sunday Evening. It will then continue through Mid-Monday Morning before tapering off from west to east. Snow accumulation of 4-6″ is expected. Roads will be snow packed Monday Morning if not plowed. Area B – Snow will move in from west to east Sunday Evening. Snow will then persist through dawn before changing to rain after sunrise. Only a short period…MORE...
With temperatures plunging tonight, wind chills in the teens are likely Friday Morning. Well below average temperatures will continue into the weekend with highs only in the 20s and 30s expected both Saturday and Sunday. At the same time, a low pressure system will develop in the Great Plains, moving east through the weekend. There continues to be some model disagreement. With that said, one solution appears to be emerging. Impacts across the state will undoubted vary. However, much more of the state will get in on the winter weather action. This time, we don’t just a few hours of…MORE...
As the title indicates, a significant multi-day lake effect snow event is likely in Northwest PA. Snow will begin Thursday, intensifying Friday. By Saturday lake effect banding will begin to diminish. Most persistent lake effect snow bands will likely be in Erie, Crawford and Warren Counties. Snowfall amounts could reach two feet in areas shaded in red on our forecast map below. Locations such as Erie will receive around 7-10″ total, as will Warren. Meadville will see 8-12″ of snow. Sunday will feature precipitation, but there is a great deal of disagreement in the models. There is a good chance…MORE...
A light wintry mix pushed through the state Sunday Night, dropping anything from plain rain in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia to sleet across much of the Lower Susquehanna Valley and Lehigh Valley along with up to two inches of snow in higher elevations of the Central and Western PA. Now, our focus shifts to another wintry mix event expected Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning. Both the European Model and the American Model had been very consistent in showing very different solutions up until last night. However a consensus throughout the models has developed today. Overall, the GFS (American Model) will take…MORE...
Two separate winter weather events are likely in the coming days, before temperatures drop Friday (Dec 9th). There is a good chance that a winter storm with widespread impacts will take place sometime between December 9th and December 17th. However as mentioned we have two events incoming just in the next several days. The first event arrives Sunday Evening, leaving Monday Morning. A clipper-like system will move through the region resulting in light rain and snow. SUNDAY PM – MONDAY AM CLIPPER MAP FORECAST Area A: Light snow will move in Sunday Evening from west to east, exiting from west…MORE...
