Severe weather season is hitting its peak and we’re just now beginning to feel that in the last several days. After six tornadoes were confirmed associated with storms last Saturday, more severe weather is inbound today and tomorrow.
The boom is bust potential is higher than usual, largely associated with whether or not these storms even trigger. We like to go with a mean of the short range models, so if two of three are on board with scattered severe thunderstorm coverage, so are we.
THUNDERSTORM TIMING
We’re most likely looking at storms firing up in Western PA early to mid afternoon, pushing east into Central PA by late afternoon to early evening. This means Eastern PA, especially Southeast PA, is looking at timing around or even after sunset for these potential strong to severe storms.
This would follow very textbook Pennsylvania storm evolution, and it’s what most guidance is favoring. Below is future radar from the RFRS model for today.
2 PM THURSDAY:
4 PM THURSDAY:
6 PM THURSDAY:
8 PM THURSDAY:
10 PM THURSDAY:
In addition, high humidity combined with temperatures in the 90s has prompted Heat Advisories in Southeast PA for heat indexes up to 104 degrees. Below is the model mean for feels like temperatures at 3:00 PM today.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
Area A: Scattered severe thunderstorms expected mainly very late afternoon into this evening. Damaging winds up to 75 MPH are the main threat, followed by frequent lightning and very isolated hail.
Area B: Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected. Damaging winds up to 70 MPH are the main hazard, with frequent lightning on these storms.
Lots of people have outdoor plans tomorrow. We’re looking at heat indexes just as high on Friday along with another threat of severe weather!
Don’t forget to share this forecast with family and friends who may have outdoor events!
You must be logged in to post a comment.