Coolest Air of the Season to Arrive this Weekend into Early Next Week

After a record breaking hot Summer in many locations across Pennsylvania, most people are about sick of the heat and humidity. There is some good news. Beginning this weekend and lasting until at least the first half of next week, there will be a taste of Autumn air throughout the Keystone state.

On Saturday, what is known as a Backdoor Cold Front will pushing in from the Northeast and will drape right just south of the PA/MD line, creating a barrier for the warmer air to invade the region. Backdoor Cold Front’s are caused by cooler Maritime air from the Atlantic Ocean, which pushes into our region. Typically we receive our Cold Front’s from the Northwest. But because this front is coming from the East/Northeast, it is referred as a Backdoor Cold Front.

back-door-cold-frontThe image above is valid 8 PM Saturday Night. You can clearly see where the Backdoor Cold Front is placed per the latest GFS. Just look at the area that separates the warm color from the cool colors and that is where your front is setup. If you have plans to the South or West of PA this weekend, still expect above average temperatures.

Saturday Night into Sunday Morning and Sunday Night into Monday Morning will be the state’s coolest night of the Autumn Season so far. low-temps-9-25

There is a possibility of some frost developing in locations in North-central and Northeastern PA.

High temperatures for the area beginning on Saturday and through early next week look to remain in the 60s for many areas, possibly upper 50s for some locations! high-temps-9-25

The rest of this month looks to remain near average temperature-wise. There are some signs that point to the warm air returning by October, but is too early to tell for sure. For now, enjoy the cooler weather that is coming up!

Fall 2016 Weather Forecast: A Slow Start to Fall, Snow Still Possible Late Season

Fall 2016 is almost upon us. With that said, it does not feel like it in any way whatsoever. Temperatures are reaching the 80s and 90s nearly everyday, and as mentioned in the September Outlook posted earlier, that will be common as we progress through September. Below is a month-by-month outlook. Instead of getting into all of the scientific variables that 99% of you could care less about, we will jump straight into temperatures and precipitation.

SEPTEMBER 2016: Above average temperatures are expected with slightly below average rainfall.

This will negatively impact Fall Foliage, turning many trees brown or dark yellow. Furthermore, the current drought is likely to be extended but not worsen.

OCTOBER 2016: Slightly above average temperatures with average precipitation.

During October we will experience temperature swings. However, we do think that above average temperatures will be more common. With that said, there will be three to five day periods where below average temperatures exist. Precipitation will be in the form of storm systems along with cold fronts. We do think that some areas will see their first flakes in Mid to Late October.

NOVEMBER 2016: Average temperatures along with average precipitation.

Once again temperatures swings will be seen during the month of November, as they usually are. There is a chance that this month could be slightly above average temperature-wise. Precipitation will be near-normal with lake effect snow beginning in Late November. We are confident that the entire state will see their first snow in November.

DECEMBER 2016: Average temperatures and average precipitation.

We don’t expect this month to be snow-filled. There is a chance of a few winter weather events outside of mountain regions though. Temperatures will be near average, but we don’t anticipate rapid temperature swings. Lake effect snow will likely be slightly above normal.

Our Preliminary 2016-2017 Winter Outlook will be released October 4th. Don’t forget to like us on facebook by clicking here!

September 2016 Forecast: Fall Didn’t Get an Invite to the Party

As we begin to head into Fall, many are wondering what the weather will be like and how it could impact Fall Foliage. Some are even wondering about the winter already. For now, we will focus on September.

This Summer has definitely been hot and dry. It has been so dry, there are voluntary water reductions in parts of the state. Unfortunately, we expect September to be an extension of this type of weather. Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist. The main source of rain will be along cold fronts, which will be few and far between.

There will be periods of average to slightly below average temperatures, but they will be short-lived and scattered. Above average temperatures will be common this month. Highs in the 80s and even low 90s for much of the month, with lows only in the mid 50s, into the 60s.

Unfortunately, this means Fall Foliage will not be the greatest this year. Many trees will have brown or dark yellow leaves, eventually falling off before turning orange or red. However, that doesn’t mean all types of trees.

Our Fall 2016 Forecast will be issued later this evening, be sure to stay tuned for that. As always, remember to like us on facebook by clicking here for all updates regarding Pennsylvania weather action!

Hurricane Hermine to Cause Serious Impacts to the Beaches, Impacts Further Inland

Yesterday, it looked as if most of PA and even much of New Jersey would escape the brunt of Hurricane Hermine. However, the latest shift in recent guidance suggests we will be dealing with a bit more of a punch.

Before we get into the discussion, it is important to note, this will not be a major storm for PA, but it is Labor Day Weekend and we know a lot of people travel this weekend to the beaches. The Coastal areas is where this will be a major to even serious storm. The further inland you go, the lesser the impacts.

With Tonight’s update, we broke it into two maps, one map for the estimated rainfall amounts and another for expected winds. The rainfall will not be the bigger issue, the winds will definitely cause more damage, especially for areas closer to the coast and even Southeast PA.

Unfortunately, this will not be a fast moving storm. Once it is about 50-100 miles East of the NJ coast, Hermine will stall and spin for 48+ hours. This will be damaging for the MD/DE/NJ/Long Island beaches. Not only will this cause beach erosion, but also storm surge in the 2 to 4 feet range.

Timing: Late Saturday through Tuesday. Sunday into early Monday will be the worst of the winds and rain.

Expected rainfall:HERMINE RAINFALL 9 2

Expected Winds: HERMINE WINDS 9 2

Areas in Pink and Dark Red: Expect beach erosion, widespread power outages, storm surge of 2 to 4 feet for coastal areas. This is not the place to be this weekend.

Areas in the lighter shade of red: Scattered power outages are possible, flooding may be a concern.

Areas in Orange: An isolated power outage here or there is possible with some rainfall, other than that, expect a very breezy couple days.

Areas in yellow: No real impacts from Hurricane Hermine other than some light rainfall amounts and breezy conditions.

For more updates, make sure you have our page liked on Facebook>>>>PA Weather Action on Facebook!

Will Hurricane Hermine Impact Your Labor Day Weekend Plans?

Hurricane Hermine will make landfall in Northern Florida tonight. Over the past few days, there have been model inconsistencies (very shocking, we know) regarding where the storm will head next. Even though the track is never set in stone, we can now zoom in on its immediate impacts on our area.

Below there are five zones, A is highest impact, E is slight impact. Here are a few more details.

ZONE A – This area will see significant impacts from Hurricane Hermine. Wind gusts of 40-60+ MPH are expected along with 2.5-5″ of rain. All elevations below 2 feet will see flooding (immediate coastal areas).

ZONE B – This area will see moderate impacts from Hurricane Hermine. Wind gusts of 30-50 MPH are expected along with 1.5-3″ of rain. A 50 mile shift of the track could make a large difference in this region.

ZONE C – This region will see low impacts from Hurricane Hermine. Wind gusts of 25-40 MPH are expected along with 1-2″ of rain. A shift in track could make a large difference when it comes to impacts in this zone.

ZONE D – This region will see slight impacts from Hurricane Hermine. Wind gusts of 20-35 MPH are anticipated along with .5″ of rain.

ZONE E – This region will see minimal impacts from Hurricane Hermine. Wind gusts of 20-30 MPH are possible along with .25″ of rain.

As mentioned, the track of Hurricane Hermine is not 100% known. Stay tuned for updates on our facebook page! Like it by clicking here if you don’t already. Stay safe!

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Tropical Storm Hermine to Cause Major Problems for Labor Day Weekend

THE FORECAST FOR HURRICANE HERMINE HAS BEEN UPDATED SINCE THE RELEASE OF THIS ARTICLE. SEE THE LATEST UPDATE BY CLICKING HERE.

As we get closer and closer to the time period we are watching (Saturday through Monday), the more clear it is becoming that much of our local beaches and even a good portion of PA will be impacted by Tropical Storm Hermine this Weekend.

Over the last 48 hours, guidance has continued the trend NW putting much of the area in the line of fire. With that being said, we are still 72+ hours away from impact…there is still time for some wiggle room.

Here is our latest Forecast: TROP UPDATE 8 31

This is a significant shift Northwest from our previous forecast.

Areas in pink: Over 6″ of rainfall is possible with winds reaching over 65 mph, widespread power outages is likely. Storm surge over several feet is possible.

Areas in red: Over 4″ of rainfall is possible, with winds reaching over 50 mph, widespread power outages is possible. Storm surge over several feet is possible.

Areas in orange: Over 2″ of rainfall is possible, with winds exceeding 30 mph, scattered power outages is possible. Some storm surge possible for coastal locations.

Areas in yellow: Less than 2″ of rainfall, with winds exceeding 20 mph. An isolated power outage here or there is possible.

FOR A CLOSER LOOK OF OUR COVERAGE AREA:TROP UPDATE LOCAL 8 31

We hate to say it, but cancelling your weekend plans to the beach is probably the better decision as of now. This forecast over the last 2 days has trended worse and worse, unless it does a complete 180, the area is in for a washout this weekend, with significant storm surge for coastal locations.
Eastern PA there is the possibility for scattered power outages. Widespread power outages as you head to the coastal areas. The worst of the time-frame stated on the map, looks to be Sunday.

For more updates follow our Facebook page as we track Tropical Storm Hermine>>>PA Weather Action on Facebook!

 

Tropical Depression 9 May Impact Labor Day Weekend Plans

For the last week or so, we have been tracking what was once Tropical Invest 99L, which has recently been upgraded to a Tropical Depression. At first it had seemed that most of the concern would be centered around the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast Coast. However, recent trends have shifted the concern for not just those areas, but also now the Mid-Atlantic and even potentially the Northeast coastline.

Here is the latest forecast graphic from the National Hurricane Center regarding the projected path of Tropical Depression 9: NHC TD 9

This is a significant shift Northwest from their recent outlooks. Another shift NW and it puts Eastern PA/New Jersey/Delaware/Long Island/Maryland in the area of concern.

Timing: For the Southeast Coast States, Thursday through Friday. Mid-Atlantic, Friday through Saturday. For PA/NJ/MD/DE/Long Island, IF it were to make impact it would be between Saturday and Sunday.

Please note, if you have beach plans this weekend, you may want to stay out of the water as the current will be very strong and the waves will be much taller than normal. 

Below is our latest forecast graphic regarding Tropical Depression 9:

Areas in Pink: Flooding rains of 6 inches or more is possible. Winds sustained at 65mph or greater, with gusts higher.

Areas in Red: Rainfall may exceed 4 inches, causing many areas to flood. Winds sustained at 45mph or greater is possible.

Areas in Orange: Moderate flooding of 2 inches is possible. Winds sustained at 30mph or greater.

Areas in Yellow: Rainfall will remain below 2 inches which will lead to only minor flooding. Winds sustained at 20mph or greater is possible. This area now includes the beaches of MD/DE/DE/Long Island/CT/RI/MA.

We will have daily updates throughout the rest of the week, be sure to follow our Facebook page>>>PA Weather Action on Facebook!

trop update 8 30

Tropical Trouble Taking Aim at the U.S.

During the past several days or so, you might of heard about a hurricane or tropical storm that is supposed to be rocking some part of the East Coast/Gulf of Mexico in the coming days. While that is all a rumor at this point, some of it is true. We are tracking Tropical Invest 99L, which is currently located North of the Dominican Republic.

To put it in perspective of why you should be a little hesitant of your source that mentioned a hurricane/tropical storm is coming, Invest 99L has not even earned an official name yet. It still has to become a Tropical Depression, then a Tropical Storm, and then if it gets strong enough a Hurricane.

This is the latest look at the National Hurricane Center’s map showing where Invest 99L will likely develop into a Depression: nhc invest 99L update

And here are the latest Forecast models depicting what kind of track Invest 99L may take: invest 99L

There is a pretty good chance Southern Florida gets hit with a good amount of rainfall and potential high winds. But notice the spread on these models. This has a chance of making a landfall in Eastern Texas to the Panhandle of Florida…assuming it does not fall apart over Cuba.

It is important to know, the strength of this system is still in question when and if it makes landfall on the U.S.

Should PA be worried about this? As of now, no. But, some guidance members do suggest this does take a turn Northeastward sending tropical remnants in our neck of the woods which would produce flooding rain, IF that were to occur. At this time, it appears unlikely. If you have family members or friends in Florida and throughout the Gulf Coast states, make sure you give them a heads up.

This is our current forecast as of Thursday Evening and will be updated in the coming days:

Locations in red, anywhere from Miami to New Orleans are at greatest risk for Flooding and high winds from Invest 99L.

Timing: Southern Florida will be impacted between Saturday and Monday. Florida Panhandle through Louisiana, impacts will be felt between Monday and Wednesday of next week.

“Like” us on Facebook for more updates regarding Tropical Invest 99L>>>>PA Weather Action on Facebook!

invest 99L update ofi

Bowing-Line Segments Capable of Producing Damaging Winds Possible Sunday

A system pushing through Ohio right now, will be crossing Pennsylvania during the overnight hours and into the day on Sunday. Due to cloud coverage, Western PA will be in for a chance of showers and downpours, but nothing severe. However, skies will be more clear to the East, which will lead to increased instability and the potential for Severe Weather.

The Storm Prediction Center states the potential exists for isolated bowing-line segments capable of producing damaging winds. Tornado risk seems to be rather limited this time around, but the threat for straight-line wind damage is a concern.

Timing: Showers/downpours will arrive in Western PA in the Morning hours. For Central PA, the main threat for thunderstorms will be between 10 AM and 4 PM. Eastern PA, the main threat for thunderstorms will arrive between 4 PM and 10 PM.

Below is the latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center as of Saturday Afternoon.

Area A – Best chance for Severe Weather, the SPC has placed this areas under a MARGINAL RISK for Severe Weather. This is the area to watch for some of these bowing-line segments to form, which may lead to damaging winds. Straight line-winds are possible.

Area B – This area is at risk for Thunderstorms, but for the most part, the storms will remain below Severe Criteria. For Western areas in this zone, cloud coverage should prohibit storms to strengthen to severe limits and for Eastern areas in this zone, by the time these storms reach your location, sunlight will be lost leading to less instability.

For more updates “like” our page on Facebook>>>>PA Weather Action on Facebook!

Severe Thunderstorm Update, Slight Risk Expanded

Since last night’s update, the Storm Prediction Center has now expanded their SLIGHT RISK for Severe Weather to cover just about the entire state with the exception for far Northwest PA.

These storms will still be isolated, with many locations not seeing a drop of rain. However, areas that do receive these storms, will be in for some intense storms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60mph and even a tornado.

Timing: The threat exists all day for Storms, but the most vulnerable time looks to be in the late Afternoon and Evening hours.

Below is the updated Storm Prediction Center Map.

Area A – Area under greatest risk for Severe Weather Today. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded their SLIGHT RISK area to cover just about the entire state of PA.

Area B – This includes Erie and far Northwest PA. This area is under a MARGINAL RISK for Severe Weather. The potential still remains for damaging winds and a possible tornado, but the chances are a little lower than those under a SLIGHT RISK.

We will have updates throughout the day once these storms get firing, so be sure to have our Facebook page like to stay updated>>>>PA Weather Action on Facebook!

spc update 8 16

Isolated Supercells Capable of Producing Damaging Winds and a Tornado or Two Possible Tuesday

The only way to breakdown this pattern of extreme heat and humidity is to have multiple systems pass through the area, and sure enough that is what we have here this week. Tomorrow a potent system will be passing through our state, leading to the chance of Severe Weather for the entire State.

Will this be a widespread Severe Threat? No. There will be ISOLATED storms throughout the area, however, the storms that do develop look to be on the potent side. Strong enough that the Storm Prediction Center has mentioned the words, supercell and tornadoes. The tornado threat is rather low, but the possibility is there. The main threat is for damaging winds in excess of 60mph.

Timing: The threat for storms will exist all day, but the threat for the strongest storms will be during the Evening and Nighttime hours late Tuesday. Again not every town will experience a storm, these will be isolated in nature, but the storms that do form will be potent.

Below is the latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center.

Area A – Area that is greatest at risk for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a SLIGHT RISK for Severe Weather.

Area B – The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a MARGINAL RISK for Severe Weather. Again damaging winds is the primary threat, the risk for a tornado is still there as well.

Area C – Way down in far Southern New Jersey, all storm activity will remain below Severe Criteria.

Be sure to like our Facebook Page for the latest regarding Tuesday’s Severe Weather>>>> PA Weather Action on Facebook!

SPC 8 16

Life-Threatening Heat Wave For End of Week, Weekend

As if this Summer hasn’t been hot enough already, yet another wave of dangerous heat is on the way. Excessive Heat Warnings which are issued for life-threatening heat indexes have been issued for parts of Southeastern PA including the Philadelphia area. Saturday will be the hottest day as some areas could reach a heat index of 110°F.

Here is our latest forecast for Thursday through Sunday.

Area A – Temperatures will reach between 92 and 96 with humidity around 60% resulting in heat indexes of 105-116.

Area B – This area will reach between 90 and 94 with humidity around 60% causing heat indexes of 100-110.

Area C – High temperatures between 86 and 90 with humidity hovering around 60% will result in heat indexes of 90-100.

Area D – Temperatures will reach between 82 and 86 with 60% humidity prompting a heat index of 84-91.

g96

Several heat-related deaths have already occurred this Summer in Pennsylvania, so be sure to know where your kids are at all times, check on your elderly, and keep all pets indoors. Do not be exposed to this heat for long periods of time and stay hydrated.

Warn your family and friends of the upcoming dangerous heat wave by sharing this forecast below. Stay tuned for further updates by liking Pennsylvania Weather Action on facebook. Stay safe out there everyone!

2016-17 WINTER GLIMPSE: The Driving Factors

We are now less than two months from the start of fall foliage and three months away from first flakes across much of the state. While it’s too early to release forecast maps, it’s the prime time to look at driving factors of the upcoming winter. The most important factor of course being the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) will be in a very weak La Nina phase. This is important because last winter we saw one of the strongest El Nino events in history. As we all know, the winter wasn’t pretty for snow lovers especially in Northern Pennsylvania. However, this year we will see a very weak La Nina and possibly even a neutral phase. Just how do we know this already?

G90

The image above displays a plume of models predicting the ENSO. The majority of models indicate a neutral or very weak La Nina phase. Furthermore, several of the more respectable models such as the ECMWF (Euro), and the JAMSTEC predict we will only see a neutral to Weak La Nina phase. How will that impact our weather? For the best answer to that question, we look at analogs. Our job is to pick out the most similar ENSO years to the current one, and examine what occurred those winters. We do this because what occurred in analog winters could be very similar to what occurs this winter.

We selected five winters with very similar ENSO conditions as this year. We then generated a map of temperatures compared to normal during the selected winters. But what if we go into a weak to moderate La Nina phase instead of neutral to very weak? We also chose analog winters where a weak to moderate La Nina developed. Below are the two maps.

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The map on the left shows what played out during the neutral to very weak La Nina winters. Below normal temperatures were seen across the entire Eastern US, including Pennsylvania. The map on the right shows what played out temperature-wise in Weak to Moderate La Nina winters. Near normal temperatures were seen throughout our area. As stated, we will likely be looking at a neutral or very weak La Nina phase. Below is one of the best models, the JAMSTEC, predicting sea surface temperatures this winter.

G91

With La Nina very weak, the door will be opened for others factors such as the PDO (which is driven somewhat by the ENSO) to take control. A strengthened PDO usually translates to ridging in the Western US, meaning troughing in the east. This is yet another factor that will have an impact on our winter. But do these potential below average temperatures implicated by the analogs as well as models mean above average snowfall? We gathered the snowfall totals from our top five analog winters for four Pennsylvania cities and compressed all of the data into a graphic shown below.

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Four out of our five analog winters brought above average snowfall to all four selected Pennsylvania cities. Only one winter ended below normal in the snowfall category. While we are not using these numbers as official predictions in any way, they will likely impact our preliminary winter outlook coming in October.

To sum it all up, analogs of this upcoming winter were on the cold and snowier side. This is not a forecast though, just yet. Be sure to share this article below and don’t forget to like Pennsylvania Weather Action on facebook if you haven’t yet by clicking here! Stay tuned everyone!

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Saturday

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms have the potential of disrupting your plans for your Saturday. A line of storms will pushing from Northwest to Southeast throughout the first half of your day Saturday, possibly producing bowing segments that have the capabilities of producing damaging winds.

These storms will be hit or miss meaning NOT EVERY TOWN will see a storm.

The earlier this system arrives Tomorrow, the less chance of this line producing Severe Weather. However, if it comes in a little slower, areas that receive this line in the afternoon/early evening hours have the better chance of experiencing Severe Weather and is why the Storm Prediction Center has placed these areas under a MARGINAL RISK.

Below is the latest Storm Prediction Center forecast for Saturday.

Area A – This area is placed under a MARGINAL RISK for Severe Weather. Timing: 11 AM – 2 PM for Wesern areas in this Zone (closer to Harrisburg) and 2 PM – 5 PM for Central and Eastern areas of this zone (Reading, Allentown, Philadelphia, etc.)

Area B – Thunderstorms are possible Saturday Mid-Morning. Most activity will remain below Severe Criteria. Timing: 7 AM – 11 AM, West to East.

Area C – Showers are still possible early Saturday Morning, but due to the fact these showers will happen before Sunrise, little to no instability will be available in these locations to produce Severe Storms. Timing: 12 AM (Saturday) – 7 AM West to East.

Main Impacts: Damaging Winds in excess of 60 MPH.

For more updates like our Facebook page>>>>PA Weather Action on Facebook!
thunderstorms sat 8 6

Drought Prompts Voluntary Water Reductions Across 33 Pennsylvania Counties

With many areas well below average as far as rainfall over the past several months, the PA Department of Environmental Protection has issued drought watches and warnings for 33 counties across the state. This means voluntary reductions of non-essential water are in place. Yes, this is Pennsylvania we’re talking about, not California. Below is a map of drought watches and warnings in Pennsylvania.

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Residents of all counties in the drought watch (yellow) are suggested to limit their water usage to 95% of normal. This includes Allentown, Reading, Lebanon, Harrisburg, Williamsport, State College, Altoona, Wellsboro, Bradford, St. Marys, New Castle, and Mercer along with surrounding areas. Residents of Potter County are in a drought warning (red) and are suggested to limit their water usage to 85-90% of normal.

Be sure to turn off the sprinkler at night, turn off the water when brushing your teeth, and do not take a very long shower if not needed. Of course there are many more ways to limit water usage.

Remember to share this post with your family and friends especially if you live in the affected areas! For many more weather updates be sure to like Pennsylvania Weather Action of facebook by clicking here!

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