Tropical Trouble Taking Aim at the U.S.

During the past several days or so, you might of heard about a hurricane or tropical storm that is supposed to be rocking some part of the East Coast/Gulf of Mexico in the coming days. While that is all a rumor at this point, some of it is true. We are tracking Tropical Invest 99L, which is currently located North of the Dominican Republic.

To put it in perspective of why you should be a little hesitant of your source that mentioned a hurricane/tropical storm is coming, Invest 99L has not even earned an official name yet. It still has to become a Tropical Depression, then a Tropical Storm, and then if it gets strong enough a Hurricane.

This is the latest look at the National Hurricane Center’s map showing where Invest 99L will likely develop into a Depression: nhc invest 99L update

And here are the latest Forecast models depicting what kind of track Invest 99L may take: invest 99L

There is a pretty good chance Southern Florida gets hit with a good amount of rainfall and potential high winds. But notice the spread on these models. This has a chance of making a landfall in Eastern Texas to the Panhandle of Florida…assuming it does not fall apart over Cuba.

It is important to know, the strength of this system is still in question when and if it makes landfall on the U.S.

Should PA be worried about this? As of now, no. But, some guidance members do suggest this does take a turn Northeastward sending tropical remnants in our neck of the woods which would produce flooding rain, IF that were to occur. At this time, it appears unlikely. If you have family members or friends in Florida and throughout the Gulf Coast states, make sure you give them a heads up.

This is our current forecast as of Thursday Evening and will be updated in the coming days:

Locations in red, anywhere from Miami to New Orleans are at greatest risk for Flooding and high winds from Invest 99L.

Timing: Southern Florida will be impacted between Saturday and Monday. Florida Panhandle through Louisiana, impacts will be felt between Monday and Wednesday of next week.

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Bowing-Line Segments Capable of Producing Damaging Winds Possible Sunday

A system pushing through Ohio right now, will be crossing Pennsylvania during the overnight hours and into the day on Sunday. Due to cloud coverage, Western PA will be in for a chance of showers and downpours, but nothing severe. However, skies will be more clear to the East, which will lead to increased instability and the potential for Severe Weather.

The Storm Prediction Center states the potential exists for isolated bowing-line segments capable of producing damaging winds. Tornado risk seems to be rather limited this time around, but the threat for straight-line wind damage is a concern.

Timing: Showers/downpours will arrive in Western PA in the Morning hours. For Central PA, the main threat for thunderstorms will be between 10 AM and 4 PM. Eastern PA, the main threat for thunderstorms will arrive between 4 PM and 10 PM.

Below is the latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center as of Saturday Afternoon.

Area A – Best chance for Severe Weather, the SPC has placed this areas under a MARGINAL RISK for Severe Weather. This is the area to watch for some of these bowing-line segments to form, which may lead to damaging winds. Straight line-winds are possible.

Area B – This area is at risk for Thunderstorms, but for the most part, the storms will remain below Severe Criteria. For Western areas in this zone, cloud coverage should prohibit storms to strengthen to severe limits and for Eastern areas in this zone, by the time these storms reach your location, sunlight will be lost leading to less instability.

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Severe Thunderstorm Update, Slight Risk Expanded

Since last night’s update, the Storm Prediction Center has now expanded their SLIGHT RISK for Severe Weather to cover just about the entire state with the exception for far Northwest PA.

These storms will still be isolated, with many locations not seeing a drop of rain. However, areas that do receive these storms, will be in for some intense storms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60mph and even a tornado.

Timing: The threat exists all day for Storms, but the most vulnerable time looks to be in the late Afternoon and Evening hours.

Below is the updated Storm Prediction Center Map.

Area A – Area under greatest risk for Severe Weather Today. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded their SLIGHT RISK area to cover just about the entire state of PA.

Area B – This includes Erie and far Northwest PA. This area is under a MARGINAL RISK for Severe Weather. The potential still remains for damaging winds and a possible tornado, but the chances are a little lower than those under a SLIGHT RISK.

We will have updates throughout the day once these storms get firing, so be sure to have our Facebook page like to stay updated>>>>PA Weather Action on Facebook!

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Isolated Supercells Capable of Producing Damaging Winds and a Tornado or Two Possible Tuesday

The only way to breakdown this pattern of extreme heat and humidity is to have multiple systems pass through the area, and sure enough that is what we have here this week. Tomorrow a potent system will be passing through our state, leading to the chance of Severe Weather for the entire State.

Will this be a widespread Severe Threat? No. There will be ISOLATED storms throughout the area, however, the storms that do develop look to be on the potent side. Strong enough that the Storm Prediction Center has mentioned the words, supercell and tornadoes. The tornado threat is rather low, but the possibility is there. The main threat is for damaging winds in excess of 60mph.

Timing: The threat for storms will exist all day, but the threat for the strongest storms will be during the Evening and Nighttime hours late Tuesday. Again not every town will experience a storm, these will be isolated in nature, but the storms that do form will be potent.

Below is the latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center.

Area A – Area that is greatest at risk for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a SLIGHT RISK for Severe Weather.

Area B – The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a MARGINAL RISK for Severe Weather. Again damaging winds is the primary threat, the risk for a tornado is still there as well.

Area C – Way down in far Southern New Jersey, all storm activity will remain below Severe Criteria.

Be sure to like our Facebook Page for the latest regarding Tuesday’s Severe Weather>>>> PA Weather Action on Facebook!

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Life-Threatening Heat Wave For End of Week, Weekend

As if this Summer hasn’t been hot enough already, yet another wave of dangerous heat is on the way. Excessive Heat Warnings which are issued for life-threatening heat indexes have been issued for parts of Southeastern PA including the Philadelphia area. Saturday will be the hottest day as some areas could reach a heat index of 110°F.

Here is our latest forecast for Thursday through Sunday.

Area A – Temperatures will reach between 92 and 96 with humidity around 60% resulting in heat indexes of 105-116.

Area B – This area will reach between 90 and 94 with humidity around 60% causing heat indexes of 100-110.

Area C – High temperatures between 86 and 90 with humidity hovering around 60% will result in heat indexes of 90-100.

Area D – Temperatures will reach between 82 and 86 with 60% humidity prompting a heat index of 84-91.

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Several heat-related deaths have already occurred this Summer in Pennsylvania, so be sure to know where your kids are at all times, check on your elderly, and keep all pets indoors. Do not be exposed to this heat for long periods of time and stay hydrated.

Warn your family and friends of the upcoming dangerous heat wave by sharing this forecast below. Stay tuned for further updates by liking Pennsylvania Weather Action on facebook. Stay safe out there everyone!

2016-17 WINTER GLIMPSE: The Driving Factors

We are now less than two months from the start of fall foliage and three months away from first flakes across much of the state. While it’s too early to release forecast maps, it’s the prime time to look at driving factors of the upcoming winter. The most important factor of course being the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) will be in a very weak La Nina phase. This is important because last winter we saw one of the strongest El Nino events in history. As we all know, the winter wasn’t pretty for snow lovers especially in Northern Pennsylvania. However, this year we will see a very weak La Nina and possibly even a neutral phase. Just how do we know this already?

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The image above displays a plume of models predicting the ENSO. The majority of models indicate a neutral or very weak La Nina phase. Furthermore, several of the more respectable models such as the ECMWF (Euro), and the JAMSTEC predict we will only see a neutral to Weak La Nina phase. How will that impact our weather? For the best answer to that question, we look at analogs. Our job is to pick out the most similar ENSO years to the current one, and examine what occurred those winters. We do this because what occurred in analog winters could be very similar to what occurs this winter.

We selected five winters with very similar ENSO conditions as this year. We then generated a map of temperatures compared to normal during the selected winters. But what if we go into a weak to moderate La Nina phase instead of neutral to very weak? We also chose analog winters where a weak to moderate La Nina developed. Below are the two maps.

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The map on the left shows what played out during the neutral to very weak La Nina winters. Below normal temperatures were seen across the entire Eastern US, including Pennsylvania. The map on the right shows what played out temperature-wise in Weak to Moderate La Nina winters. Near normal temperatures were seen throughout our area. As stated, we will likely be looking at a neutral or very weak La Nina phase. Below is one of the best models, the JAMSTEC, predicting sea surface temperatures this winter.

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With La Nina very weak, the door will be opened for others factors such as the PDO (which is driven somewhat by the ENSO) to take control. A strengthened PDO usually translates to ridging in the Western US, meaning troughing in the east. This is yet another factor that will have an impact on our winter. But do these potential below average temperatures implicated by the analogs as well as models mean above average snowfall? We gathered the snowfall totals from our top five analog winters for four Pennsylvania cities and compressed all of the data into a graphic shown below.

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Four out of our five analog winters brought above average snowfall to all four selected Pennsylvania cities. Only one winter ended below normal in the snowfall category. While we are not using these numbers as official predictions in any way, they will likely impact our preliminary winter outlook coming in October.

To sum it all up, analogs of this upcoming winter were on the cold and snowier side. This is not a forecast though, just yet. Be sure to share this article below and don’t forget to like Pennsylvania Weather Action on facebook if you haven’t yet by clicking here! Stay tuned everyone!

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Saturday

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms have the potential of disrupting your plans for your Saturday. A line of storms will pushing from Northwest to Southeast throughout the first half of your day Saturday, possibly producing bowing segments that have the capabilities of producing damaging winds.

These storms will be hit or miss meaning NOT EVERY TOWN will see a storm.

The earlier this system arrives Tomorrow, the less chance of this line producing Severe Weather. However, if it comes in a little slower, areas that receive this line in the afternoon/early evening hours have the better chance of experiencing Severe Weather and is why the Storm Prediction Center has placed these areas under a MARGINAL RISK.

Below is the latest Storm Prediction Center forecast for Saturday.

Area A – This area is placed under a MARGINAL RISK for Severe Weather. Timing: 11 AM – 2 PM for Wesern areas in this Zone (closer to Harrisburg) and 2 PM – 5 PM for Central and Eastern areas of this zone (Reading, Allentown, Philadelphia, etc.)

Area B – Thunderstorms are possible Saturday Mid-Morning. Most activity will remain below Severe Criteria. Timing: 7 AM – 11 AM, West to East.

Area C – Showers are still possible early Saturday Morning, but due to the fact these showers will happen before Sunrise, little to no instability will be available in these locations to produce Severe Storms. Timing: 12 AM (Saturday) – 7 AM West to East.

Main Impacts: Damaging Winds in excess of 60 MPH.

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Drought Prompts Voluntary Water Reductions Across 33 Pennsylvania Counties

With many areas well below average as far as rainfall over the past several months, the PA Department of Environmental Protection has issued drought watches and warnings for 33 counties across the state. This means voluntary reductions of non-essential water are in place. Yes, this is Pennsylvania we’re talking about, not California. Below is a map of drought watches and warnings in Pennsylvania.

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Residents of all counties in the drought watch (yellow) are suggested to limit their water usage to 95% of normal. This includes Allentown, Reading, Lebanon, Harrisburg, Williamsport, State College, Altoona, Wellsboro, Bradford, St. Marys, New Castle, and Mercer along with surrounding areas. Residents of Potter County are in a drought warning (red) and are suggested to limit their water usage to 85-90% of normal.

Be sure to turn off the sprinkler at night, turn off the water when brushing your teeth, and do not take a very long shower if not needed. Of course there are many more ways to limit water usage.

Remember to share this post with your family and friends especially if you live in the affected areas! For many more weather updates be sure to like Pennsylvania Weather Action of facebook by clicking here!

Potential Flooding For Parts of PA Tomorrow, Flash Flood Watches are in Effect

Tomorrow poses the chance for scattered downpours and thunderstorms, that have the ability to produce flash flooding. The best chance for these downpours and storms are expected to be in Eastern PA Tomorrow and because of that, Flash Flood Watches are in place.

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Those counties in the green shade are under a FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday Evening. These areas have already accumulated a couple inches of rainfall over the last few days, with an additional 1 to 2 more inches of rainfall possible Tomorrow with these scattered downpours. The few counties in the light brown shade are under a HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK which just states the potential for some flash flooding due to scattered downpours.

Please note, Tomorrow will NOT be a washout by any means. Only scattered areas throughout the State will have to deal with downpours Tomorrow. Just because the whole State below is highlighted in colors, does not mean the whole state will see rain. These colors are just to point out which areas have the greater chance of these downpours, and IF your area has one of these downpours roll through your neighborhood, you know how much rainfall to expect from it.

With that being said, here’s our Forecast through Tomorrow Night for which areas have the best chance at seeing downpours and the higher rainfall totals:

Area A – This area has the best chance at experiencing heavy downpours and storms Tomorrow. These downpours have the chance of producing another 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated locations hitting the 3 inch mark.

Area B – Guidance is going back and forth of whether the showers and storms develop over this area, or further East of this area. So right now we took a blend and are calling for an additional 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall. Again, not all locations will receive rain, just those that experience the scattered downpours.

Area C – Most downpours and storms will stay to your East, but a few will develop over your area, and may put down a quarter to half inch of rainfall.

Area D – Scattered weak showers are possible Tomorrow, these light showers may produce up to quarter inch of rain for the areas that do receive rainfall.

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Heavy Rainfall This Weekend to Help With Drought

The latest drought monitor indicates the majority of Pennsylvania as abnormally dry to even in severe drought conditions. Parts of the state have seen a third of their average rainfall over the past three months. While a few inches of rain will only make a dent in the drought, it will definitely be beneficial. Below is a graphic showing (% of normal) rainfall over the past three months.

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The only area that has seen average rainfall over the past three months has been the southern tier counties. The rest of Pennsylvania has seen far below normal rainfall. However, two separate rainfall events are in Mother Nature’s plans.

The first event comes Friday as a low pressure slides just south of the state, delivering a slug of rain to Southern and Central PA. Northern Pennsylvania will still see rainfall from this event but lower amounts. The next event comes Sunday as a large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms travels through the region. Once again, Southern Pennsylvania will see the highest amounts.

Below is a 5 Day Rainfall graphic indicating total rainfall amounts over the next 120 hours around the state.

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Heat Indexes of 110°F, Along With Severe Storms Possible Monday

Heat alerts now cover much of Central and Eastern PA, as heat indexes will reach 110°F in areas. If outside be sure to drink lots of water each hour and DO NOT leave a young child or pet in the car. An updated map of heat related alerts is below.

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Scattered severe storms will also be around the state today, see details for each labeled region below.

AREA  A – This region can expect scattered strong to severe thunderstorms packing winds of near 60 MPH and hail in the strongest of cells. Storms will begin to form in Western PA just after noon and move east, along with pop-up thunderstorms that will be around the entire afternoon and evening.

AREA  B – This region can expect scattered strong storms in the early afternoon, but the majority of cells will stay under severe limits. However a few severe storms are possible, bringing winds near 60 MPH.

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Life-Threatening Heat Wave to Continue, Excessive Heat Alerts Now in Place

For those that have been following our posts, you know we have been saying that we thought this Heat Wave would continue until at least Monday, but there were signs that it would persist longer into this coming week. Well unfortunately, that is exactly what is happening. This Heat Wave will continue until at least Thursday, possibly Friday. Friday is currently up in the air. But definitely by the weekend we will have some relief from the extreme heat.

Here’s a look at the latest Excessive Heat Alerts placed by the National Weather Service for Tomorrow:heat alerts

This is just for Tomorrow. Areas outside of the advisories are not escaping the Heat as you will see in our updated forecast below, but those areas will not be meeting the Excessive Heat Advisory/Warning criteria by a hair.

Now onto our updated Forecast for Monday through Thursday.

Area A – Temperatures throughout the week will hover between 98 and 103 degrees, with real feel temperatures approaching 110 degrees at times.

Area B – This area will have high temperatures throughout the week anywhere from 93 to 98 degrees, with real feel temperatures approaching 105 degrees at times.

Area C – High temperatures between 88 and 93 degrees throughout the week, with real feel temperatures approaching 100 degrees at times.

Area D – Temperatures will stay below 90 degrees.

PLEASE take this with caution. Unfortunately, a young 4 year old girl lost her life in this heat just the other day because she was left in a car. It is such a sad story and we hate to hear it time and time again. So check on your elderly, keep all pets indoors, and check where your kids are at all times. Do not be exposed to this Heat for long periods of times and stay hydrated.

For further updates follow us on Facebook>>>>PA Weather Action on Facebook!

deadly heat wave

Excessive Heat Watch Upgraded and Extended For Parts of PA

Over the last few days, we have been mentioning that this Heat Wave will last at least through Monday. Well the National Weather Service is now in agreement. They have extended their watches until Monday and have also upgraded extreme Southeast PA to an EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING and coastal areas to a HEAT ADVISORY.

Here is a quote from the National Weather Service regarding the Excessive Heat Warning:

“IMPACTS…THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED HEALTH ISSUES WILL BE HIGH, ESPECIALLY FOR THE ELDERLY AND FOR THOSE ALREADY IN POOR HEALTH. THE MULTIPLE DAYS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL GREATLY AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE ATTENDING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY EVENTS WITH LARGE GROUPS OF PEOPLE THAT ARE GATHERING IN THE DIRECT SUN.”

This is a serious situation especially for the areas outlined in the advisories below. However, that does not mean the rest of the State escapes the heat. To view our previous forecast for the whole state follow this link: http://paweatheraction.com/dangerous-heat-wave-on-the-way-excessive-heat-watch-in-effect

Here’s the latest watches, warnings and advisories from the National Weather Service:

Area A – An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from Saturday through Monday. Heat index values will maxing out around 105 degrees during this time-frame.

Area B – An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Saturday through Monday. Heat index values will be hovering between 100 and 105 degrees. By Tomorrow this area will likely be upgraded to a warning or advisory.

Area C – An Excessive Heat Advisory is in effect during the day Saturday and Monday. Sunday the National Weather Service feels temperatures will not be quite as bad for these areas due to lower humidity. However, Saturday Heat index values will be approaching 105 degrees and on Monday a whopping 110 degrees.

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Excessive heat upgrade

Marginal Severe Storm Risk For Friday

The only possible temporary relief from the heat, will come in the form of isolated storms. Unfortunately, the key word is isolated. Tomorrow, a system will be passing well to our North, putting the state of PA on the south side of the system, giving us the potential for some storms. The worst of the Severe Weather will likely occur in Upstate New York and Southern New England this time around.

However, there will be isolated Strong to Severe storms Tomorrow. Storms will be around the Northwestern third of state in the mid-morning hours between 5 am and 9 am, and will spread southeastward throughout the day. By the Evening time, most activity should be shut off for the entire state.

The Storm Prediction Center has stated, the potential does exist for damaging winds and large hail in the storms that do become Severely warned.

Area A – For those traveling to Southern New England Tomorrow, those areas are under a SLIGHT RISK for Severe Weather, where the parameters are more ripe there, than they will be in PA for Severe Storms.

Area B – This includes much of the State except for extreme Southern PA. All areas in this zone are under a MARGINAL RISK for Severe Weather. Again, the threat will not be widespread, but there will be a few locations throughout PA that experience these storms. It is a hit or miss type of deal.

Area C – All storm activity will remain below Severe Criteria.

Keep track of the Severe Weather potential, as well as the Heat Wave with us on our Facebook Page>>>PA Weather Action on Facebook!

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Dangerous Heat Wave On The Way, Excessive Heat Watch In Effect

Starting Tomorrow and lasting through at least Monday, most of the state will be dealing with scorching hot temperatures. The latest trends suggest that the worst of the Heat will primarily focus over the Eastern Half of the State, however, trends are also suggesting hotter temperatures approaching further North than previously expected. So with Today’s updated map from our first call, we bumped our zones a bit North.

Before we get into our Forecast, it is important to note the National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat watch for all of Southeastern PA and extends into New Jersey and Delaware. excessive heat watch

Their Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Saturday AM through Sunday Evening. To avoid confusion, this is the National Weather Service’s forecast. Not ours. In their discussion, they state that it is possible that they will extend their time-frame for the Excessive Heat Watch to be in effect. Their call is for real feel temperatures in these areas to reach between 100 and 105 degrees.

It is more than likely as we get into Tomorrow, more areas will be under a heat watch and/or advisory.

Now here is our Forecast. Western PA looks to luck out of any major heat wave. Friday and Saturday will feature temps in the low to mid 90s, but by the time Sunday rolls around, temperatures will not be too bad. This does include Pittsburgh. However, the Eastern Half of PA does not luck out so well. This is where there will be a prolonged period of very hot temperatures.

Area A – Actual high temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees, with real feel temperatures approaching an impressive 110 degrees.

Area B – Actual high temperatures between 95 and 100 degrees, with real feel temperatures approaching 105 degrees.

Area C – Actual high temperatures between 90 and 95 degrees, with real feel temperatures approaching 100 degrees.

Area D – Actual high temperatures under 90 degrees.

It being very warm is one thing, but these temperatures are to the point where it becomes dangerous if you do not take it seriously. On average in the last 30 years, excessive heat is 2nd on the list for most deaths caused by something weather related. Yes, it is ahead of both tornadoes and hurricanes. Floods is #1 on the list. So please check on your elderly family, friends, and neighbors. Also, a reminder to bring all pets inside and get plenty of fluids. Try to limit being outside for long periods of time.

Stay updated with us on our Facebook page>>>PA Weather Action on Facebook!
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